Match report →
New England – Inter Miami1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
New England
1.64
Total xG
3.34
Inter Miami
1.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New England | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.43 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Luca Langoni on the bench (3 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Jackson Yueill on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Luis Suárez on the bench (16 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 99% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: New England is 2nd in the league with 58 points, Inter Miami is 3rd with 56 points
- Home/Away: New England scores 1.88 goals per match at home in the league, Inter Miami 2 goals per match away
- Form: New England recorded 4 wins in the last 5 matches, Inter Miami 3 wins in 5 matches
Risks
- Head-to-head: Inter Miami won 4 of the 5 previous meetings, New England none
- Attack: Inter Miami scores 2.34 goals per match in the league this season, New England 1.69 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
New England36%
Draw25%
Inter Miami39%
Double chance
New England or draw61%
Inter Miami or draw64%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.64 : 1.71, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 8 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
New England 4-2-3-1 · Inter Miami 4-3-3
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 12 I. Feingold
- 22 E. Kohler
- 66 J. Wynder
- 23 W. Sands
- 8 M. Polster
- 21 B. Raines
- 25 P. Miller
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 99 D. Turgeman
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 17 I. Fray
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 2 G. Luján Melli
- 7 R. de Paul
- 42 Y. Bright
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 10 L. Messi
- 19 G. Berterame
- 11 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
Substitutes
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 14 J. Yueill
- 33 D. Parisian
- 41 L. Langoni
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 88 A. Farrell
- 2 M. Fofana
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 4 F. Mura
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
- 20 S. Morales
- 22 D. Ayala
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 56 D. Pintér
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
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