Match report →
Inter Miami – Charlotte3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
2.42
Total xG
3.72
Charlotte
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.4 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Luis Suárez on the bench (16 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Rodolfo Aloko on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Inter Miami scores 2.69 goals per game at home in the league, Charlotte concedes 2 goals per game away in the league
- Table: Inter Miami ranks 2nd in the league with 59 points, Charlotte is 5th with 53 points
Risks
- Form: Charlotte scored 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches
- Defense: Inter Miami concedes 1.75 goals per game at home in the league
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami61%
Draw21%
Charlotte18%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw82%
Charlotte or draw39%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.42 : 1.30, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
6%
1:2
5%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: 8 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Charlotte: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 3 cards per game (32 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · Charlotte 4-2-3-1
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 17 I. Fray
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 7 R. de Paul
- 22 D. Ayala
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
- 19 G. Berterame
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 22 F. Kessler
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 11 L. Abada
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Substitutes
- 2 G. Luján Melli
- 4 F. Mura
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 42 Y. Bright
- 56 D. Pintér
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 88 A. Shaw
- 11 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 21 T. Miller
- 6 A. Doucouré
- 4 A. Privett
- 13 B. Bronico
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 25 T. Smalls
- 37 R. Aloko
- 20 B. Coulibaly
- 71 N. Richmond
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