Match report →
New York City – Los Angeles FC1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
New York City
1.45
Total xG
2.83
Los Angeles FC
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York City | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| M. Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Mathieu Choinière not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sergi Palencia not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: New York City with 1 win in their last 5 matches, Los Angeles FC with 1 win in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: New York City scores 1.86 goals per match at home in the league, Los Angeles FC 1.2 goals per match away
Risks
- Table: Los Angeles FC is 6th in the league with 45 points, New York City is 10th with 33 points
- Rest days: Los Angeles FC with 2 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
New York City38%
Draw28%
Los Angeles FC34%
Double chance
New York City or draw66%
Los Angeles FC or draw62%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (12 points lost)
- New York City with Hannes Wolf starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (16/6 games, last 29)
- New York City: 75% of all goals in the first half (9 of 12, last 12 games)
- Los Angeles FC: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
New York City 4-2-3-1 · Los Angeles FC 4-2-3-1
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 17 H. Wolf
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 33 A. Long
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 8 M. Delgado
- 6 I. Lima
- 81 L. Walta
- 7 H. Son
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 99 D. Bouanga
Substitutes
- 9 B. Traore
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 3 M. Miazga
- 16 A. Martínez Batista
- 88 M. Jones
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 9 A. Sieb
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 5 R. Porteous
- 12 T. Hasal
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 20 S. Vasquez Cabrera
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