Major League Soccer
Inter Miami - New England
04/25/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.0
1.1
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Inter Miami
New England
League
The Lab
- 1New England with Peyton Miller: 7.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Inter Miami: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 3New England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 4Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5New England: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
26%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Inter Miami has a clear home dominance with 4 wins in 4 direct encounters
- New England's away defense proved extremely vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per game
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Inter Miami with a probability of 51%
Risk Factors
- Inter Miami had only 2 days of rest since their last match
- New England had only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview
Inter Miami (2nd place, 18 points) hosts New England (3rd place, 15 points) in Major League Soccer
The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 12:30 AM
A top-of-the-table clash where both teams are fighting for crucial points at the league summit
Form
Inter Miami is unbeaten in their last five matches with 3 wins and 2 draws (WDDWW)
Their last result was a 2-0 away win against Real Salt Lake
New England showed strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches (LWWWW)
Their most recent game ended in a 2-1 away win against Atlanta United
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Inter Miami scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.56 goals per game this season
In home games, they score an average of 2.0 goals and concede 2.0 goals
Inter Miami's expected goals (xG) increased from 1.37 in the season average to 1.71 in recent form
New England also scores an average of 2.0 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals
Away from home, New England conceded an average of 4.5 goals while scoring 2.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 6 of Inter Miami's 9 games and in 5 of New England's 8 games
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 of Inter Miami's 9 games and in 6 of New England's 8 games
Head-to-Head
In the 4 past direct encounters, Inter Miami dominated with 4 wins
New England has not managed to win any of these duels so far
The goal difference of 16:5 clearly favors Inter Miami
Inter Miami won the last meeting 4-1 on October 4, 2025
Key Players
For Inter Miami, Lionel Messi is a key player with 7 goals and 1 assist, holding an average rating of 8.03
Rodrigo De Paul contributed significantly with 2 goals and 2 assists and a rating of 7.58
GermĂĄn Berterame scored 2 goals and 2 assists
On New England's side, Carles Gil is important with 1 goal and 2 assists and a rating of 7.29
Dor Turgeman scored 2 goals and 2 assists
Peyton Miller contributed 3 goals
Luca Langoni (1 goal, 6 assists) is not nominated
Goalkeepers
Inter Miami's goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair achieved 2 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.57
New England's goalkeeper Matt Turner also had 2 clean sheets and an average rating of 7.21
Influences
Inter Miami scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 2.0 goals in their 2 home games
New England conceded an average of 4.5 goals and scored 2.0 goals in their 2 away games