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Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire - Atlanta United

04/12/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Chicago Fire
2.0
Total xG
3.0
Atlanta United
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
What influences the xG?
CFAU

Chicago Fire

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.95
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.06
Hugo Cuypers not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Atlanta United

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Aleksey Miranchuk on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.61
+0.61
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

24%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 59% probability and expects 2.0 goals for Chicago Fire
  • Chicago Fire shows stable form with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games, while Atlanta United recorded only one win in the same period
  • Chicago Fire boasts a strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.5 goals in 4 home games, whereas Atlanta United averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • For Atlanta United, only 69% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available without Aleksey Miranchuk
  • Atlanta United is currently scoring more frequently (1.5 goals per game in recent matches) than their season average (1.2 goals per game)
  • The historical head-to-head record between the teams is even, with one win each and two draws in four direct encounters
Overview

Chicago Fire (6th place, 10 points) host Atlanta United (12th place, 4 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on April 12, 2026, 12:30 AM

Chicago Fire enters this clash as favorites

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Chicago Fire shows good form in their last 5 games: WDLWW

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last matchday ended with a win, and the team is on a 2-win streak

Atlanta United's recent form in their last 5 games is LLWDL

This includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Their last result was a loss, and the team is on a 1-loss streak

Chicago Fire is currently in better form than Atlanta United

Statistics

Chicago Fire has scored an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and conceded 0.83 goals per game

The team achieved 3 clean sheets, and there were 3 games where both teams scored

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches

In home games, Chicago Fire scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 0.5 goals

Atlanta United has scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded 1.83 goals per game

The team achieved 1 clean sheet, and there were 3 games where both teams scored

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 matches

Atlanta United conceded an average of 1.17 goals in home games

Head-to-Head

There have been a total of 4 head-to-head matches between these teams

Chicago Fire won 1 match, Atlanta United won 1 match, and there were 2 draws

Chicago Fire scored 4 goals and Atlanta United scored 6 goals

The last encounter on July 16, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw

The recent head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Chicago Fire, Jonathan Bamba stands out as an attacker with 2 season goals and 1 assist, averaging a rating of 7.21

In his last 5 appearances, he scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist, with an average rating of 7.19 and a stable form trend

Jack Elliott, a defender, has an average season rating of 7.03 with a stable form trend

Mbekezeli Mbokazi, another defender, has an average season rating of 6.98, also with a stable form trend

For Atlanta United, Miguel AlmirĆ³n, an attacker with 2 season assists and an average rating of 7.23, is a key player

In his last 4 appearances, he provided 2 assists with a rating of 6.98, and his form trend is declining

TomƔs Jacob, a defender, scored 1 season goal and has an average rating of 6.87

In his last 4 appearances, he scored 1 goal with a rating of 6.95 and shows a stable form trend

Emmanuel Latte Lath, an attacker, scored 1 season goal and 2 assists, averaging a rating of 6.71

In his last 4 appearances, he scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists with a rating of 6.82 and shows a stable form trend

Goalkeepers

Chicago Fire is represented by goalkeeper Chris Brady, who recorded 3 clean sheets this season

For Atlanta United, goalkeeper Lucas Hoyos is between the posts, achieving 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

Chicago Fire has scored an average of 1.25 goals at home and conceded only 0.5 goals at home, indicating a home advantage

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