Major League Soccer
Toronto - Cincinnati
04/11/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.0
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Toronto
Cincinnati
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
27%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a higher home win probability for Toronto at 41% compared to 32% for Cincinnati
- Toronto is in significantly better form with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games, while Cincinnati has only one win
- Cincinnati's away defense is extremely vulnerable, conceding an average of 5.5 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Despite Cincinnati's poor results, the advanced stats analysis shows a stable offensive form averaging 1.4 goals per game
- The pipeline analysis indicates a high probability of both teams scoring at 61%
- Toronto is missing key players such as R. Edwards (Red Card Suspension) and D. Mihailovic (Pelvis Injury)
Overview
Toronto (6th place, 10 points) host Cincinnati (10th place, 6 points) in Major League Soccer
Match on April 11, 2026, 5:00 PM
Toronto aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Cincinnati seeks to escape the lower ranks
Form
Toronto shows a current form of LWDWW
They recorded 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games
Their last two appearances ended in a win
Cincinnati has a form of LLLWL
They achieved 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 games
Their last match ended in a loss
Statistics
Toronto scores an average of 1.5 goals per game and concedes 1.67 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 1 goal conceded
They kept 1 clean sheet
Both teams scored in 4 out of 6 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored 4 times
Cincinnati also scores an average of 1.5 goals per game but concedes 2.5 goals per game this season
Away, they average 1.5 goals scored and an alarming 5.5 goals conceded
They kept 1 clean sheet
Both teams scored in 3 out of 6 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored 3 times
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3 times, Toronto 1 time, and there was 1 draw
The goal difference is 4:7 in favor of Cincinnati
The last encounter on March 8, 2026, was won by Toronto away with a score of 1:0
Cincinnati has proven to be the more dominant team in recent encounters
Key Players
For Toronto, DĆ”niel SallĆ³i (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.94 rating) and Josh Sargent (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg. 6.90 rating) are in stable form
Alonso Coello (1 assist, Avg. 7.13 rating) shows a rising form
For Cincinnati, KĆ©vin Denkey (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.07 rating) and Ender Echenique (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg. 7.08 rating) are in stable form
Evander (1 assist, Avg. 7.00 rating) is also in stable form
Goalkeepers
Luka Gavran (6 appearances) is in goal for Toronto
The team recorded 1 clean sheet
Roman Celentano (4 appearances) is in goal for Cincinnati
The team recorded 1 clean sheet
Influences
Toronto has scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1 goal in home games, indicating a certain home advantage