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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - New York RB

04/18/2026, 06:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.6
Total xG
3.4
New York RB
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CMNYR

CF Montréal

Defensive weakness (2.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.78
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.14
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
Wikelman José Carmona Torres not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

New York RB

Attack strength (1.84x league average)
+1.50
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.90
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.59
+0.59
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    CF Montréal: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 2
    CF Montréal with Luca Petrasso: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    New York RB with Omar Valencia: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 4
    CF Montréal: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 5
    New York RB: scored only after the break in 3 of 7 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

25%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: New York RB is the favorite with a 42% win probability
  • Tactical Advantage: New York RB showed possession-dominant football in their last 5 games with an average of 5.4 shots on target
  • Form and Trend: CF Montréal currently scores more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.14 goals), but has a poor overall form of WLLLL
Risk Factors
  • Wikelman José Carmona Torres (3G/1A) is missing for CF Montréal, leaving only 60% of the scoring threat available
  • New York RB concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
Overview

CF Montréal (15th place, 3 points) host New York RB (7th place, 11 points) in Major League Soccer

The match takes place on April 18, 2026, 02:30 PM

New York RB are favorites against the struggling hosts

Form

CF Montréal shows a form of WLLLL

The team recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses

New York RB has a form of LDLWD

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Statistics

CF Montréal scored an average of 1.14 goals per game and conceded 2.71 goals per game

New York RB averaged 1.57 goals scored and 2.14 goals conceded per match

All 7 season games of CF Montréal ended with over 2.5 goals

New York RB recorded 5 matches with over 2.5 goals this season

In their 1 home game so far, CF Montréal scored 1 goal and conceded 2 goals

New York RB scored an average of 1.5 goals in 4 away games and conceded 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, CF Montréal secured 1 win and New York RB recorded 2 wins

2 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is balanced at 7:7

The last encounter on March 8, 2026, saw CF Montréal win 3:0

Key Players

For CF Montréal, Prince Owusu with 4 goals and 1 assist and a rising form, and Iván Jaime with 1 goal and 1 assist are key players

Matty Longstaff has 0 goals and 0 assists with stable form

For New York RB, Julian Hall stands out with 5 goals and 2 assists

Adri Mehmeti contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, Emil Forsberg 1 goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

CF Montréal's goalkeeper is Thomas Guilier

CF Montréal kept 1 clean sheet this season

Ethan Horvath is in goal for New York RB

New York RB kept 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

CF Montréal scored 1 goal and conceded 2 goals in their single home game

New York RB scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.5 goals in away games

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