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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - San Diego

04/23/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.6
Total xG
2.9
San Diego
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
HDSD

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.78
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Lawrence Ennali on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

San Diego

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Marcus Ingvartsen on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    San Diego with Amahl Pellegrino: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games

  • 3
    San Diego: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Houston Dynamo with Erik Sviatchenko: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Houston Dynamo: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

27%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Slightly favored home team: Mathematical analysis predicts a 40% win probability for Houston Dynamo
  • Contrasting form trends: Houston Dynamo shows positive form development, while San Diego has a negative trend
  • Away defensive weakness: San Diego concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • San Diego concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • San Diego has an extensive injury list, including P. Sisniega Fink (Back Injury) and H. Lozano Bahena (Hamstring Injury)
Overview

Houston Dynamo (11th place, 9 points) will host San Diego (9th place, 11 points) in a Major League Soccer fixture on April 23, 2026, 2:30 AM. San Diego is currently ahead of Houston Dynamo in the league table, with both teams positioned in the mid-table.

Form

Houston Dynamo's form across all competitions is WLLLW, with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in their last five matches. Houston Dynamo's most recent game was an away 1-0 win against Orlando City. San Diego's form is DDLLL, recording 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five outings. Their last match ended in a 2-4 away loss to Real Salt Lake.

Statistics

Houston Dynamo averages 1.57 goals scored per game and concedes 2.29 goals per game. At home, they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded. The team has kept one clean sheet this season. Houston Dynamo's goal production is currently higher (averaging 1.8 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals), indicating a positive trend. San Diego averages 2.0 goals scored per game and concedes 1.75 goals. Away from home, San Diego scores 2.0 goals and concedes an average of 3.33 goals per match. San Diego has kept three clean sheets, one of which was away. San Diego's goal production is currently slowing down (averaging 1.6 goals) compared to their season average of 2.0 goals, which indicates a negative trend. Both teams scored in 4 of Houston's matches and 4 of San Diego's matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of Houston's games and 6 of San Diego's games.

Head-to-Head

There have been a total of 2 head-to-head matches between Houston Dynamo and San Diego. Both teams have secured one win each, with no draws recorded. Houston Dynamo scored 6 goals, while San Diego netted 7 goals. The most recent encounter on October 5, 2025, resulted in a 2-4 away victory for San Diego.

Key Players

For Houston Dynamo, Guilherme is a key attacker with 5 season goals and 4 assists. Midfielder Mateusz Bogusz has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist. Defender Felipe Andrade scored once this season. Lawrence Ennali (2G/0A) is not nominated for Houston. For San Diego, attacker Anders Dreyer is significant with 4 goals and 3 assists this season. Midfielder Onni Valakari has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist. Attacker Lewis Morgan has contributed 2 assists. Marcus Ingvartsen (5G/2A) is not nominated for San Diego.

Goalkeepers

Houston Dynamo's goalkeeper, Jonathan Bond, has achieved 1 clean sheet this season. In contrast, San Diego's goalkeeper, Duran Ferree, has recorded 3 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Houston Dynamo scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per home game. San Diego displays a weaker defense away from home, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per away game, while their offense scores 2.0 goals.

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