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Major League Soccer

Cincinnati - Chicago Fire

04/18/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Cincinnati
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Chicago Fire
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CINCF

Cincinnati

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-1.04
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.66
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
KĆ©vin Denkey not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Chicago Fire

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Jonathan Bamba on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Leonardo Barroso on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chicago Fire: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)

  • 2
    Cincinnati with Alvas Powell: 7.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Chicago Fire: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Chicago Fire with Jonathan Dean: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (4 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Cincinnati: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

28%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates the highest probability for a home win at 38%
  • Cincinnati's Offensive Development: The team shows a positive form trend in goal production, currently averaging 1.6 goals, compared to a season average of 1.4 goals
  • Chicago Fire's Offensive Dip: Goal production has recently fallen to 1.3 goals per game, below the season average of 1.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Cincinnati's Defensive Weakness: The team concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away game
  • Limited Goal Threat from Chicago Fire: The team averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Both Teams to Score: The pipeline analysis predicts a 59% probability that both teams will score
Overview

Cincinnati (10th place, 7 points) host Chicago Fire (2nd place, 13 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 19, 2026, 12:30 AM. Chicago Fire aims to consolidate its position in the upper ranks, while Cincinnati will try to improve from the lower mid-table.

Form

Cincinnati's recent form is L L W L D (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a draw.

Chicago Fire is in better form with D L W W W (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), achieving 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. The team has won their last 3 consecutive matches.

Statistics

Cincinnati averaged 1.43 goals scored per game and conceded 2.29 goals per game this season. At home, the team scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.0 goal.

Chicago Fire showed stronger defense, conceding an average of 0.71 goals per game while scoring 1.29 goals. Away from home, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.5 goals. Chicago Fire kept 4 clean sheets in total, Cincinnati 1.

Both teams scored in 4 of Cincinnati's 7 matches. For Chicago Fire, both teams scored in 3 of 7 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of Cincinnati's games and 4 of Chicago Fire's games.

Head-to-Head

In 4 past head-to-head encounters, Cincinnati won 3 times and Chicago Fire won once, with no draws. Cincinnati scored 7 goals, while Chicago Fire netted 5 goals. The last meeting saw Cincinnati win 2-1 on July 5, 2025.

Key Players

For Cincinnati, Ender Echenique (1 goal, 2 assists in 7 appearances, avg 7.00 rating in last 5 games), Tom Barlow (1 goal in 7 appearances, avg 6.72 rating in last 5 games), and Pavel Bucha (1 goal in 6 appearances, avg 6.79 rating in last 5 games) are notable. Not nominated: KĆ©vin Denkey (2G/1A).

At Chicago Fire, Hugo Cuypers showed strong performance with 4 goals in 4 appearances and an avg 7.67 rating in last 5 games. Robin Lod (1 goal, 1 assist in 7 appearances) and Maren Haile-Selassie (1 goal in 7 appearances) are also key players. Not nominated: Jonathan Bamba (2G/2A), Leonardo Barroso (0G/2A).

Goalkeepers

Roman Celentano of Cincinnati had an average rating of 6.79 in his last 5 games across 5 appearances. His team kept 1 clean sheet this season.

Chris Brady of Chicago Fire achieved an average rating of 7.14 in his last 5 games across 3 appearances. Chicago Fire recorded 4 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Cincinnati scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.0 goal per home game.

Chicago Fire scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.5 goals per away game. No data is available regarding the influence of weather or venue history.

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