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Major League Soccer

New England - Columbus Crew

04/18/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
New England
1.5
Total xG
3.2
Columbus Crew
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NECC

New England

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-1.16
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.68
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.06

Columbus Crew

Attack strength (1.61x league average)
+1.23
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.75
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
Wessam Abou Ali not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Taha Habroune on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 47% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew with Steven Moreira: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Columbus Crew: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: 5 of 7 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    New England: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)

  • 5
    Columbus Crew: 2 comebacks in 7 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

26%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with a probability of 41%
  • New England displays a very strong defense at home, conceding only 0.20 goals per home game on average this season
  • Columbus Crew is significantly weakened by absences, with only 47% of their usual goal production available, missing Wessam Abou Ali and Taha Habroune
Risk Factors
  • Columbus Crew's goal production is faltering (averaging 1.25 goals per game recently, season average 1.5) and shows a negative form trend
  • Despite New England's strong home defense, the historical head-to-head record shows Columbus Crew as the dominant side with 3 wins in 4 matches
  • New England is without L. Campana Romero (Hamstring Injury) and M. Polster (Hamstring Injury)
Overview

New England (8th place, 9 points) host Columbus Crew (11th place, 6 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 19, 2026, 12:30 AM. New England aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Columbus Crew seeks improved form to climb the standings.

Form

New England shows an inconsistent form with LWLWW in their last five matches across all competitions, reflecting 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last result was a win. Columbus Crew has a form of DLLWD, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games, with the last game being a draw. New England is unbeaten in their last two matches, while Columbus Crew drew their most recent game.

Statistics

New England scores an average of 2.00 goals per game and concedes 1.50 goals on average this season. At home, New England is particularly strong, averaging 2.00 goals scored and only 0.20 goals conceded per home game, with 2 clean sheets. Columbus Crew averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Columbus Crew scores 1.33 goals and concedes 1.33 goals per game, with 0 clean sheets. For New England, over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 6 matches, and both teams scored in 3 matches. For Columbus Crew, over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 7 matches, and both teams scored in 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the 4 head-to-head encounters between New England and Columbus Crew, New England has secured 1 win, while Columbus Crew has won 3 times. There have been no draws. The goal difference stands at 3:11 in favor of Columbus Crew. The last meeting on August 23, 2025, ended in a 2:1 victory for New England.

Key Players

For New England, key players could include Brayan Ceballos (Defender) with 2 goals and 0 assists, holding an average rating of 7.46 in 5 season appearances. Luca Langoni (Attacker) has 1 goal and 5 assists in 6 season appearances and Carles Gil (Midfielder) has 0 goals and 1 assist in 6 season appearances. For Columbus Crew, Diego Rossi (Midfielder) stands out with 3 goals and 0 assists in 7 season appearances, and Max Arfsten (Attacker) with 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 season appearances. Rudy Camacho (Defender) has an average rating of 6.99 in 7 season appearances.

Goalkeepers

New England's goalkeeper Matt Turner achieved 2 clean sheets in 6 season appearances. Patrick Schulte, Columbus Crew's goalkeeper, recorded 1 clean sheet in 7 season appearances.

Influences

New England benefits from a significant home advantage, scoring an average of 2.00 goals and conceding only 0.20 goals in home games. There is no venue history or weather data available that could influence the match.

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