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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - Philadelphia Union

04/25/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Philadelphia Union
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CCPU

Columbus Crew

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-1.14
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.69
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.31
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Wessam Abou Ali not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Philadelphia Union

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.61
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Philadelphia Union with Cavan Sullivan: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Philadelphia Union: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Columbus Crew with Taha Habroune: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 3.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical Analysis: Columbus Crew has a home win probability of 46%
  • Head-to-Head: Columbus Crew is unbeaten in the last 4 encounters against Philadelphia Union
  • Philadelphia Union Offensive Form: Philadelphia Union currently scores more often (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.1 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Columbus Crew has only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Philadelphia Union has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • W. Abou Ali (5G/1A) is missing for Columbus Crew, which weakens their offense
Overview

Columbus Crew (9th place, 9 points) host Philadelphia Union (15th place, 5 points)

Major League Soccer match on April 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

Columbus Crew aims to improve their standing in the lower mid-table

Philadelphia Union is fighting to escape the relegation zone

Form

Columbus Crew's form across all competitions is LWDLW

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last result was a win

Philadelphia Union shows a form of LLWDD across all competitions

They recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

The team last played to two consecutive draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Columbus Crew averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game this season

They kept 1 clean sheet

Both teams scored in 7 of 9 season matches, and 6 matches finished with over 2.5 goals

At home, Columbus Crew averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded

Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per game

They also kept 1 clean sheet

Both teams scored in 6 of 9 season matches, and 6 matches finished with over 2.5 goals

Away from home, Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

In 4 previous head-to-head matches between Columbus Crew and Philadelphia Union

Columbus Crew secured 3 wins, while Philadelphia Union did not win any match

There was 1 draw between the two teams

Columbus Crew scored a total of 7 goals, with Philadelphia Union scoring 4 goals

The last encounter saw Columbus Crew win 1-0 on June 29, 2025

Columbus Crew has been dominant in recent direct encounters

Key Players

For Columbus Crew, Diego Rossi is a key midfielder with 4 season goals and 1 assist

In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist with stable form

Max Arfsten in attack contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season

He recently scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games, but his form is declining

Midfielder Taha Habroune provided 2 assists in 8 season appearances

His form is rising with 1 assist in his last 3 games

For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski is a key attacker with 2 season goals and 1 assist

His form is rising with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Danley Jean Jacques in midfield scored 2 goals in 8 season appearances

He also scored 2 goals in his last 4 games, showing stable form

JesĂșs Bueno, also a midfielder, scored 1 goal in 8 season appearances

He scored 1 goal in his last 5 games, and his form is stable

Goalkeepers

Patrick Schulte, Columbus Crew's goalkeeper, recorded 1 clean sheet this season

His form is declining with a trend delta of -0.27

Andre Blake, Philadelphia Union's goalkeeper, also recorded 1 clean sheet this season

His form is stable with a trend delta of -0.08

Influences

Columbus Crew averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded in home games

Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded in away games

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