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Major League Soccer

Sporting KC - Seattle Sounders

05/02/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Sporting KC
1.1
Total xG
2.7
Seattle Sounders
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SKSS

Sporting KC

Attack weakness (0.43x league average)
-1.43
Defensive weakness (2.8 conceded vs 2 league avg)
+0.81
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.72
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap)
-0.14
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.05
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.05
Full strength squad available

Seattle Sounders

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.69
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
+0.62
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.40
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.03
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Seattle Sounders: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Seattle Sounders with Hassani Dotson: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Seattle Sounders: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

28%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Clear form disparity: Seattle Sounders with 4 wins and 1 draw, while Sporting KC has 5 consecutive losses
  • Pipeline forecast: The analysis favors Seattle Sounders with a 46% win probability
  • Defensive performance gap: Seattle Sounders concedes an average of 0.5 goals per game, Sporting KC averages 2.78 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
  • Sporting KC's low goal threat: Recent goal production is stagnant (0.6), below their season average of 0.8
  • Sporting KC's tactical inefficiency: Averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Sporting KC's defensive vulnerability: Conceded an average of 2.78 goals per game this season
Overview

Sporting KC (15th place, 4 points) host the Seattle Sounders (4th place, 19 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 7:30 PM. Sporting KC is battling in the lower ranks of the table, while Seattle is among the top teams and aims to solidify its position

Form

Sporting KC is in a clear crisis of form, recording a streak of LLLLL (0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses) across all competitions. Their last game ended in a 0-5 away loss against Chicago Fire. The Seattle Sounders are in excellent form with a WDWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses) record. They won their last game 2-1 at home against Dallas. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting KC scores an average of 0.78 goals per game and concedes an average of 2.78 goals per game this season. Sporting KC kept 0 clean sheets in all season games. For Sporting KC, 5 out of 9 matches ended with both teams scoring and 8 out of 9 matches had over 2.5 goals. At home, Sporting KC scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded 2.0 goals. The Seattle Sounders score an average of 1.5 goals and concede only 0.5 goals per game. They kept 5 clean sheets in all season games. For Seattle Sounders, 3 out of 8 matches ended with both teams scoring and 3 out of 8 matches had over 2.5 goals. Away from home, Seattle Sounders scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 0.67 goals

Head-to-Head

In the 4 head-to-head matches between these two teams, Sporting KC recorded 1 win, while the Seattle Sounders emerged victorious 3 times. There were no draws. The goal difference is 6:11 in favor of the Seattle Sounders. The last encounter on August 25, 2025, ended in a 5-2 away win for Seattle Sounders

Key Players

For Sporting KC, Dejan Joveljić (Attacker) is key with 4 goals, 1 assist, and an average rating of 6.86. Manu GarcĆ­a (Midfielder) contributed 1 assist with a 7.02 rating, and Lasse Berg Johnsen (Midfielder) has 1 goal with a 6.9 rating. For Seattle Sounders, Cristian RoldĆ”n (Midfielder) stands out with 3 goals and a 7.29 rating, Paul Rothrock (Attacker) with 3 goals and 1 assist and a 7.23 rating, and JesĆŗs Ferreira (Attacker) with 1 goal and 4 assists and a 7.1 rating

Goalkeepers

Sporting KC's goalkeeper, Stefan Cleveland, has kept 0 clean sheets this season. Seattle Sounders' goalkeeper, Andrew Thomas, achieved 5 clean sheets in 5 season games

Influences

Sporting KC scored an average of 0.8 goals at home and conceded 2.0 goals. Seattle Sounders scored an average of 1.33 goals away and conceded 0.67 goals

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