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Major League Soccer

Atlanta United - CF Montréal

05/02/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlanta United
1.5
Total xG
3.1
CF Montréal
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
AUCM

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.72
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

CF Montréal

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    CF Montréal: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlanta United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    CF Montréal with Samuel Piette  : 5.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlanta United with Enea Mihaj: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    CF Montréal: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

27%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • CF Montréal's rising offensive form is evident in their higher recent goal output (1.8) compared to their season average (1.4), led by top scorer Prince Owusu
  • Atlanta United's stagnant goal production, currently at just 0.8 goals per game, is significantly below their season average of 1.0, reflecting their poor overall form
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 63% probability for both teams to score, and a 59% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match
Risk Factors
  • CF Montréal concedes an alarming average of 3.4 goals per away game
Overview

Atlanta United (13th place, 7 points) host CF Montréal (12th place, 9 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 2, 2026, 11:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower third of the table and are aiming to improve their positions

Form

Atlanta United's form (LLLLW) shows a loss in four of the last five games, with a recent win against Toronto. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. The team has recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last five matches. CF Montréal's current form (LLLWW) is on the rise with two consecutive wins. The team has 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches

Statistics

Atlanta United averages 0.9 goals per game this season and concedes 1.7 goals. At home, they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per home game. Atlanta United kept 1 clean sheet, both teams scored in 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 games. Atlanta United's goal production is currently stagnant (0.8) compared to their season average (1.0). CF Montréal averages 1.44 goals per game and concedes 2.22 goals. Away, they average 1.4 goals scored and concede a high 3.4 goals per away game. CF Montréal kept 2 clean sheets, both teams scored in 4 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 games. CF Montréal is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.4)

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Atlanta United secured 1 win, CF Montréal 2 wins, and there were 2 draws. Atlanta United scored 7 goals, while CF Montréal scored 8 goals. The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on August 9, 2025. CF Montréal has been more dominant in recent direct encounters

Key Players

For Atlanta United, Aleksey Miranchuk (5 goals, 0 assists), Tomás Jacob (1 goal, 0 assists), and Tristan Muyumba (1 goal, 0 assists) are crucial. Miranchuk has recently shown a slightly declining form. For CF Montréal, Prince Owusu (6 goals, 4 assists) stands out, contributing 4 goals and 4 assists in the last five games with a rising form trend. Wikelman José Carmona Torres (3 goals, 1 assist) and Matty Longstaff (1 goal, 1 assist) are other important players

Goalkeepers

Lucas Hoyos is Atlanta United's goalkeeper and has 1 clean sheet this season. CF Montréal starts with Thomas Gillier in goal. No data is available for his season appearances or clean sheets

Influences

Atlanta United has scored an average of 0.88 goals in home games and conceded 1.38 goals. CF Montréal has scored an average of 1.4 goals in away games but conceded an alarming 3.4 goals per game on the road

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