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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Atlanta United

05/16/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Atlanta United
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OCAU

Orlando City

Defensive weakness (2.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.92
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.78
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.38
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.38
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
Tiago on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Atlanta United

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.48
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.18
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Emmanuel Latte Lath on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.77
+0.77
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City with Luis Otávio: 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlanta United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Atlanta United with Luke Brennan: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlanta United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

28%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Orlando City shows a positive attacking form development (currently 2.8 goals compared to 1.5 season average)
  • Atlanta United's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 41% for Orlando City
Risk Factors
  • Orlando City has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Atlanta United concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • The head-to-head record shows a slight dominance by Atlanta United
Overview

Orlando City (12th place, 13 points) hosts Atlanta United (14th place, 10 points) in Major League Soccer

The match takes place on May 16, 2026, 7:30 PM

Both teams are in the lower third of the table and fighting to catch up

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Orlando City's form is WLWLW

The team achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Atlanta United's form is LLWWL

The visitors recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Orlando City won their last home game 4-3 against Philadelphia Union

Atlanta United lost their last away game 1-2 against LA Galaxy

Statistics

Orlando City scored an average of 1.54 goals per game this season and conceded 2.85 goals

At home, the average is 1.62 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded

Atlanta United has an average of 1.08 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per game

Away, they scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 3.0 goals

Orlando City has not kept any clean sheets this season

Atlanta United has kept 1 clean sheet so far

Both teams scored in 8 Orlando City matches

Both teams scored in 7 Atlanta United matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 10 Orlando City matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 Atlanta United matches

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct encounters so far, there have been no draws

Orlando City won 2 of these matches, Atlanta United won 3

Both teams scored 7 goals each in these meetings

The last encounter on May 28, 2025, ended in a 3-2 victory for Atlanta United

Atlanta United has been the more dominant team in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

For Orlando City, Martín Ojeda (9 goals), Justin Ellis (1 goal, 2 assists) and Adrián Marín (3 assists) are crucial

Martín Ojeda scored 7 goals in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.84

Adrián Marín provided 3 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.66

Justin Ellis contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.32

For Atlanta United, Aleksey Miranchuk (5 goals, 2 assists), Saba Lobjanidze (2 goals) and Tristan Muyumba (1 goal) stand out

Aleksey Miranchuk scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.37

Saba Lobjanidze scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.35

Tristan Muyumba scored 1 goal in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.12

Not nominated for Orlando City: Tiago (1G/1A)

Not nominated for Atlanta United: Emmanuel Latte Lath (2G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Maxime Crépeau of Orlando City played in 12 games and kept 0 clean sheets

Lucas Hoyos of Atlanta United also played in 12 matches and kept 1 clean sheet

Influences

Orlando City averages 1.62 home goals and concedes 1.5 home goals

Atlanta United concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game

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