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Major League Soccer

Charlotte - DC United

08/22/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Charlotte
1.5
Total xG
2.9
DC United
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CHADU

Charlotte

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.11
Liel Abada on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Harry Toffolo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

DC United

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.47
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Tai Baribo on the bench (12 goals, 0 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 73% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Charlotte: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Charlotte: 83% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Charlotte with Will Cleary: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    DC United with Peglow: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    DC United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

28%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Heavy blow for the visitors: Top scorer Tai Baribo (12 goals this season) is not nominated in the starting XI
  • Opposing offensive trends: Charlotte currently scores more with 2.2 goals on average than their season average (1.8), while the visitors stagnate at 1.2 goals
  • Historical dominance: Charlotte has won all 4 previous direct duels against DC United, conceding only 1 goal
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Both teams play this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Away weakness on artificial turf: DC United has not won a game on this surface this season in 2 matches and remained without a goal
Overview

Charlotte hosts DC United at the Bank of America Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 22, 2026, 11:30 PM

Charlotte is in 6th place with 29 points, DC United is in 9th place with 24 points

The mathematical model predicts a close match with a home win probability of 40%

Form

Charlotte shows stable form of DWLWD with 2 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches

Most recently, they played out a 3-3 draw away against Toronto

DC United has a form of DWDDL with only 1 win and 3 draws

In their last match, DC United suffered a 0-3 defeat against New England

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Charlotte scores an average of 1.75 goals per game and concedes 1.55 goals

The defense is particularly strong at home, conceding only 0.92 goals per home match

DC United scores an average of 1.35 goals and concedes 1.65 goals per match

Both teams scored in 14 of Charlotte's 20 matches

Head-to-Head

Dominance for the home team in head-to-head matches

Charlotte won all 4 previous meetings against DC United

The goal difference stands at 7-1 in favor of Charlotte

The last direct duel ended in a 1-0 win for Charlotte

Key Players

Pep Biel is the key midfielder for Charlotte with 10 goals, 5 assists, and a 7.27 rating

Ashley Westwood impresses in midfield with 2 goals and 3 assists, showing a rising form trend

Idan Toklomati has contributed 6 goals and 2 assists for Charlotte this season

For DC United, Louis Munteanu is the most dangerous attacker with 5 goals and 2 assists

Keisuke Kurokawa has provided 4 assists as a defender

Not nominated for Charlotte are Liel Abada (2 goals, 4 assists) and Harry Toffolo (2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Kristijan Kahlina guards the goal for Charlotte with a season average rating of 7.06 and 3 clean sheets

Sean Johnson is in goal for DC United and has kept 4 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at the Bank of America Stadium

Charlotte has a strong record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses on artificial turf

DC United only secured one draw and one loss in 2 matches on this surface, failing to score

The stadium history shows an average of 3.6 goals per game

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