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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - Minnesota United

05/02/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Minnesota United
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CCMU

Columbus Crew

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.99
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.53
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.52
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Wessam Abou Ali not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

Minnesota United

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Columbus Crew: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Minnesota United with NicolƔs Romero: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Columbus Crew with Taha Habroune: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 3.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Minnesota United: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

29%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Home strength meets away weakness: Columbus Crew concedes only an average of 0.75 goals at home, while Minnesota United allows 1.86 goals away
  • Positive form trend for both teams: Columbus Crew is currently scoring more (Avg. 1.8 goals) than their season average, and Minnesota United also shows a positive trend with Avg. 1.4 goals
  • Mathematical analysis forecast: The calculations favor Columbus Crew with a home win probability of 43%
Risk Factors
  • High draw probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a draw with a probability of 29%
  • Close goal difference expected: Pipeline models predict 1.49 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.17 goals for Minnesota United
Overview

Columbus Crew (8th place, 12 points) host Minnesota United (5th place, 17 points)

Major League Soccer match on May 3, 2026, 12:30 AM

Columbus Crew aims to climb up the league table

Form

Columbus Crew's recent form is WDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches

The team recorded 2 consecutive wins recently

The form trend is positive, as Columbus Crew currently scores more often (Avg. 1.8 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.6 goals)

Minnesota United's form in the last 5 games is WWWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss

Minnesota United's form trend is positive, as the team currently scores more often (Avg. 1.4 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.2 goals)

Statistics

Columbus Crew scores an average of 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.3 goals

Both teams scored in 7 out of 10 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 out of 10 matches

At home, Columbus Crew averages 1.25 goals scored and concedes only 0.75 goals

Minnesota United scores an average of 1.1 goals per game and concedes 1.4 goals

The team kept 4 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 4 out of 10 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 out of 10 matches

Away from home, Minnesota United averages 1.14 goals scored and concedes a concerning 1.86 goals

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams

This match ended in a draw

The last encounter took place on March 2, 2024, and ended 1:1

Both teams scored 1 goal each in their only direct comparison

Key Players

For Columbus Crew, Diego Rossi (Midfielder) is relevant with 4 goals and 1 assist this season and 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 7.03 (season) and 7.22 (last 5)

Max Arfsten (Attacker) records 3 goals and 3 assists this season, plus 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.27 (season)

Taha Habroune (Midfielder) showed a rising form in the last 5 games with 1 assist and an average rating of 7.69 (last 5)

For Minnesota United, Kelvin Yeboah (Attacker) stands out with 5 season goals, 2 of which were in the last 5 games

TomƔs Chancalay (Attacker) contributed 1 goal and 4 assists this season, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Anthony Markanich Jr. (Defender) scored 2 goals and 1 assist this season, including 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

For Columbus Crew, Patrick Schulte is the goalkeeper, who kept 2 clean sheets this season

For Minnesota United, Drake CallenderĀ  is in goal and recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Columbus Crew shows solid home strength with an average of 1.25 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game

Minnesota United scores an average of 1.14 goals away but concedes a high 1.86 goals per away game

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