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Major League Soccer

New York RB - Dallas

05/02/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
New York RB
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Dallas
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NYRDAL

New York RB

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-1.17
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.72
Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 2 league avg)
+0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.18
Full strength squad available

Dallas

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.42
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Logan Farrington on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York RB with Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting: 9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    New York RB: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    New York RB: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    New York RB: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Dallas: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a close match with a 39% home win and 34% away win
  • New York RB's offense shows a positive trend, averaging 2.2 goals recently compared to 1.6 season average
  • Red Bull Arena has a high average of 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 matches
Overview

New York RB (11th place, 12 points) host Dallas (8th place, 13 points) at Red Bull Arena

Major League Soccer match on May 3, 2026, 12:30 AM

Both teams are closely matched in points and aim to improve their league standing

Form

New York RB's form in the last five games is W-D-L-D-L

The team achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Dallas shows a form of W-D-D-L-L in their last five games

Dallas recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses and has suffered two consecutive losses recently

Statistics

New York RB scores an average of 1.6 goals per game and concedes 2.5 goals

At home, New York RB averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded in 6 home games

Dallas scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1.5 goals per game

Away from home, Dallas averages 1.67 goals scored and 1 goal conceded in 3 away games

Red Bull Arena records an average of 3.6 total goals per game

In 3 out of 5 games at Red Bull Arena, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between the teams so far

New York RB won this single encounter

The last match on March 10, 2024, ended 2-1 in favor of New York RB

Key Players

For New York RB, Julian Hall (6 goals, 2 assists) and Jorge Ruvalcaba (3 goals) are key offensive players

Ronald Donkor has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists so far

For Dallas, Petar Musa stands out with 9 goals and 1 assist

Osaze Urhoghide with 1 goal and 1 assist and Nolan Norris with 1 goal contribute to the team's performance

Not nominated: Logan Farrington (4 goals/1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Ethan Horvath of New York RB has 10 appearances and 1 clean sheet this season

He has an average season rating of 6.67

Michael Collodi of Dallas has played in 10 games and recorded 2 clean sheets

His average season rating is 6.81

Influences

Home team New York RB scored 9 goals and conceded 9 goals in 6 home games

Dallas scored 5 goals and conceded 3 goals in 3 away games

The playing surface at Red Bull Arena is grass

Red Bull Arena has a history of averaging 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches

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