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Major League Soccer

New England - Nashville SC

05/13/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
New England
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Nashville SC
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NENS

New England

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-1.08
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.52
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Luca Langoni on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.40
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.32
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.17
Patrick Yazbek not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New England: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Nashville SC with Reed Baker-Whiting: 10.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Nashville SC: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    New England with Diego Fagúndez: 7.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Nashville SC: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

30%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: New England has a 39% home win probability, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 31%
  • New England Home Strength: Averaging 1.88 goals scored and only 0.38 goals conceded per home game this season
  • Rising Form of Carles Gil: New England's midfielder shows a rising form trend with 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for player duels and weather information
  • Nashville SC with only 3 days rest since their last match
Overview

New England (2nd place, 22 points) host Nashville SC (1st place, 24 points) in the Major League Soccer on May 13, 2026, 11:30 PM

This is a top-of-the-table clash where New England aims to close the gap and Nashville SC seeks to extend their lead

Form

New England shows strong form with W-W-D-W-W

This translates to 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Nashville SC's recent form is W-W-W-D-D

They recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games

New England won their last game, while Nashville SC drew

Statistics

New England scores an average of 1.82 goals per game and concedes 1.18 goals per game

At home, they are particularly strong, averaging 1.88 goals scored and only 0.38 goals conceded per home game

Nashville SC averages 2.09 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.73 goals

Away from home, Nashville SC scores an average of 2.50 goals and concedes 1.00 goal per game

New England has 3 clean sheets, while Nashville SC has 5 clean sheets

The mathematical analysis predicts 1.35 goals for New England and 1.20 goals for Nashville SC

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, New England secured 2 wins, Nashville SC also 2 wins, and there was 1 draw

Nashville SC scored 8 goals in these encounters, compared to New England's 6 goals

The last match was won by Nashville SC with a 4-1 scoreline on February 22, 2026

The historical head-to-head record is even

Key Players

Carles Gil is a vital midfielder for New England with 4 goals and 3 assists this season

His form trend is rising with 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Dor Turgeman in attack contributed 2 season goals and 4 assists

Defender Peyton Miller scored 3 season goals

For Nashville SC, Hany Mukhtar is a key midfielder with 3 goals and 4 assists this season

He has shown consistent performance with 1 goal and 4 assists in the last 5 matches

Forward Warren Madrigal scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Cristian Espinoza has 3 goals and 3 assists in the current season

Goalkeepers

New England's goalkeeper, Matt Turner, has an average rating of 7.28 and 3 clean sheets this season

Brian Schwake, Nashville SC's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 6.87 and 5 clean sheets

Influences

New England benefits from a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 1.88 goals and conceding only 0.38 goals per home game

Nashville SC also shows good form away from home, with 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per away game

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