Major League Soccer
New York City - DC United
05/03/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.7
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
New York City
DC United
League
The Lab
- 1DC United: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 2DC United with Nikola Markovic: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- 3New York City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4DC United: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
- 5DC United: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Orlando City: 2 goals (84', 90')
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
29%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 42% probability, while a draw stands at 29% and an away win at 30%
- New York City is possession-dominant with an average of 60% possession and 5.6 shots on target in the last five games, contrasting with DC United's counter-attacking 45% possession and 4.2 shots on target
- New York City's recent goal production has slowed (1.2 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.9 goals), while DC United's defense has recently conceded more goals (2.75 per game recently versus 1.88 season average)
Risk Factors
- New York City's recent form trend is negative, with stagnant goal production averaging 1.2 goals compared to 1.9 season average
- DC United conceded more goals in recent games, averaging 2.75 compared to 1.88 season average
Overview
New York City (8th place, 12 points) host DC United (10th place, 12 points) in Major League Soccer
The match takes place on May 3, 2026, 3:00 PM
Both teams are level on points in the mid-table
Form
New York City's form is 'DLLDL' (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) from their last five games
The last result was a loss
DC United shows a form of 'LLDDW' (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), with their last game being a win
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
New York City scores an average of 1.9 goals per game and concedes 1.6 goals
In their home games, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded
Seven of their games ended with both teams scoring, six with over 2.5 goals
DC United scores an average of 1.1 goals and concedes 1.5 goals
Away, they score 1.2 goals and concede 1.4 goals
Four of their games ended with both teams scoring, five with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, there has been one win each for New York City and DC United, as well as two draws
New York City scored 4 goals and conceded 3 goals
The last encounter on August 30, 2025, ended with a 1-2 win for DC United
The record of recent encounters is even
Key Players
For New York City, NicolĆ”s FernĆ”ndez Mercau (8 season goals, 0 assists) with stable form, Maxi Moralez (1 season goal, 6 assists) also with stable form, and AgustĆn Ojeda (3 season goals, 2 assists) are important players
Not nominated are Hannes Wolf (2 goals, 1 assist), Tayvon Gray (1 goal, 1 assist), and Keaton Parks (2 goals, 0 assists)
For DC United, Jackson Hopkins (2 season goals, 2 assists) with stable form, Peglow (0 season goals, 3 assists) with rising form, and Louis Munteanu (1 season goal, 0 assists) stand out
Not nominated is Tai Baribo (6 goals, 0 assists)
Goalkeepers
For New York City, Matt Freese is the goalkeeper, who achieved one clean sheet this season
He has a season average rating of 6.82 and stable form
DC United's goalkeeper is Sean Johnson, who recorded three clean sheets this season
His season average rating is 6.78, his form is declining
Influences
New York City shows strong offense in home games with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded
DC United scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 1.4 goals away