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Major League Soccer

Toronto - Inter Miami

05/09/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 4
Expected Goals
Toronto
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Inter Miami
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

0:1

8%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
TORIM

Toronto

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-1.08
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.44
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Josh Sargent not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Richie Laryea not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
José Cifuentes not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

Inter Miami

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.64
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Toronto with Malik Henry: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Toronto: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Inter Miami with Gonzalo LujĂĄn: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 4.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

30%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Inter Miami's stronger season performance: As 3rd in the table (19 points), Miami is significantly ahead of Toronto (8th place, 14 points)
  • Inter Miami's offensive efficiency: The model calculates 1.21 expected away goals for Inter Miami
  • Toronto's persistent poor form: With 0 wins in the last 5 games (DDDLD), Toronto shows a weak performance
Overview

Toronto host Inter Miami in a Major League Soccer match. The game is scheduled for May 9, 2026, 7:00 PM. Toronto are in 8th place with 14 points, while Inter Miami are in 3rd place with 19 points. Inter Miami aim to solidify their top position, while Toronto seeks to move away from the bottom half of the table.

Form

Toronto's form in their last five matches (all competitions) is DDDLD, with 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match ended in a draw. Inter Miami's form is DWWDL, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match ended in a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Toronto averages 1.64 goals scored per game and concedes 1.82 goals per game. Both teams scored in 9 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 matches. In home games, Toronto averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded. Inter Miami averages 2.0 goals scored per game and 1.73 goals conceded per game. Both teams scored in 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches. Away from home, Inter Miami averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded.

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Toronto has 0 wins, Inter Miami has 2 wins, and 2 matches ended in a draw. The goal difference is 3:6 in favor of Inter Miami. Their last encounter on September 27, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. Inter Miami has shown recent dominance in direct confrontations.

Key Players

For Toronto, DĂĄniel SallĂłi (4 goals, 2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 goals, 1 assist), and Jonathan Osorio (0 goals, 2 assists) are important players. DĂĄniel SallĂłi shows a stable form, Kobe Franklin a rising form. For Inter Miami, Lionel Messi (8 goals, 2 assists), Telasco Segovia (2 goals, 5 assists), and GermĂĄn Berterame (3 goals, 2 assists) stand out. Lionel Messi, Telasco Segovia, and GermĂĄn Berterame all show stable form.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Luka Gavran of Toronto has recorded 1 clean sheet this season. Dayne St. Clair, Inter Miami's goalkeeper, has recorded 2 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Toronto averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded at home. Inter Miami averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded away from home.

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