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Major League Soccer

Seattle Sounders - Dallas

04/26/2026, 02:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Seattle Sounders
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Dallas
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SSDAL

Seattle Sounders

Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-1.48
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+1.01
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.08
Albert RusnĂĄk not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Cristian RoldĂĄn on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

Dallas

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.36
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Petar Musa not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Logan Farrington on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Osaze Urhoghide on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
JoaquĂ­n Valiente on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
83% of goal output missing (only 15% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas with Nolan Norris: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Seattle Sounders: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 3
    Seattle Sounders with Paul Arriola: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 4
    Seattle Sounders: scored only after the break in 3 of 7 games

  • 5
    Seattle Sounders: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Dallas with critically reduced offensive power: Only 15% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, with key players like Petar Musa (9G/1A) and Logan Farrington (4G/1A) missing
  • Strong home form of Seattle Sounders: The team records 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games and a very solid home defense with only 0.25 goals conceded per game
  • Historical dominance and mathematical prognosis: Seattle won 3 of 4 head-to-head matches, and the pipeline analysis predicts a home win with a 39% probability
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time for Dallas: The team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Dallas's away offensive strength: The away team averages 2.0 goals per away game, posing a challenge for Seattle's defense
  • Potential draw: The mathematical analysis indicates a 29% probability for a draw
Overview

Seattle Sounders (5th place, 16 points) host Dallas (8th place, 13 points) in Major League Soccer

The match is on April 26, 2026, 3:30 AM

Both teams are vying for important league points

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Seattle Sounders show strong performance in all competitions with form WWDWW

They recorded 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches

Seattle recently won two games consecutively

Dallas presents mixed form with WWDDL

The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 outings

Dallas' last match ended in a loss

Statistics

Seattle Sounders average 1.43 goals per game and concede 0.43 goals per game this season

At home, they are strong with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded

Seattle has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Dallas averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per match

Away from home, Dallas shows a solid performance with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per game

Dallas has kept 2 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 2 of Seattle's 7 games, and in 5 of Dallas' 9 games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of Seattle's games and in 5 of Dallas' games

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between Seattle Sounders and Dallas in total

Seattle Sounders won 3 of these matches, while Dallas is yet to secure a win

One match ended in a draw

The goal difference of 5:2 clearly favors Seattle Sounders

Seattle Sounders won the last encounter on May 24, 2025, with a score of 1:0

Seattle Sounders have been dominant in recent head-to-head clashes

Key Players

For Seattle Sounders, the following players are in the starting lineup

Paul Rothrock (Attacker) scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 6 season appearances with an average rating of 7.26

JesĂșs Ferreira (Attacker) contributed 4 assists in 7 season appearances with an average rating of 7.04

Kalani Kossa-Rienzi (Defender) scored 1 goal in 5 season appearances with an average rating of 7.09

For Dallas, the following players are in the starting lineup

Louicius Deedson (Attacker) scored 1 goal and provided 0 assists in 6 season appearances with an average rating of 6.77

Patrickson Delgado (Midfielder) scored 1 goal and provided 0 assists in 8 season appearances with an average rating of 6.79

Ramiro (Midfielder) provided 1 assist in 8 season appearances with an average rating of 6.77

Goalkeepers

Andrew Thomas is the goalkeeper for Seattle Sounders

He kept 5 clean sheets this season

Michael Collodi is the goalkeeper for Dallas

He managed 2 clean sheets this season

Influences

Seattle Sounders show strong performance in home games with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded

Dallas averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per away game

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