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Major League Soccer

Seattle Sounders - St. Louis City

04/19/2026, 01:30 AM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Seattle Sounders
1.6
Total xG
2.8
St. Louis City
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SSSLC

Seattle Sounders

Attack weakness (0.47x league average)
-1.42
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+1.03
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Paul Rothrock on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
JesĂșs Ferreira on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 50% available)

St. Louis City

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.10
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.09
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: 5 of 7 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Seattle Sounders: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

  • 3
    Seattle Sounders with Paul Arriola: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 6 games)

  • 4
    St. Louis City with Sergio CĂłrdova: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Seattle Sounders: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

27%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Seattle Sounders home defense: 0.0 goals conceded in 2 home games, 5 clean sheets overall
  • Mathematical analysis: Seattle Sounders have a home win probability of 47%
  • St. Louis City away defense: Average of 3.0 goals conceded per away game
Risk Factors
  • Seattle Sounders' limited goal threat: Only 50% of usual starting XI strength without Paul Rothrock and JesĂșs Ferreira
  • Seattle Sounders' declining goal production (recent 1.0, season average 1.2)
  • Positive form trend in St. Louis City's goal production (recent 1.0, season average 0.9)
Overview

Seattle Sounders (5th place, 13 points) host St. Louis City (13th place, 6 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The game is scheduled for April 19, 2026, 2:30 AM. Seattle Sounders aim to solidify their position in the upper half of the table, while St. Louis City seeks to move away from the bottom

Form

Seattle Sounders' last five games show a form of LWWDD, which consists of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last result was a W against Houston Dynamo. St. Louis City's last five games show a form of LLWDD, indicating 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last result was a D against Dallas. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Seattle Sounders averaged 1.0 goals scored per game and conceded 0.33 goals per game this season. They kept 5 clean sheets. St. Louis City averaged 0.86 goals scored per game and conceded 1.29 goals per game. St. Louis City has not kept any clean sheets. In home games, Seattle Sounders scored an average of 1.0 goals per game, while conceding 0.0 goals. St. Louis City conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game in away matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters between the two teams, Seattle Sounders dominate with 4 wins compared to 1 win for St. Louis City. Overall, Seattle Sounders scored 9 goals, while St. Louis City recorded 3 goals. The last meeting was won by Seattle Sounders on March 8, 2026, with a 1-0 score

Key Players

For Seattle Sounders, Albert RusnĂĄk (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg. 7.04 rating), Cristian RoldĂĄn (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg. 7.05 rating), and Kalani Kossa-Rienzi (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg. 7.20 rating) are key players. For St. Louis City, Marcel Hartel (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 7.52 rating), Simon Becher (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg. 6.81 rating), and Chris Durkin (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg. 7.04 rating) are important

Goalkeepers

Andrew Thomas is the goalkeeper for Seattle Sounders, who have kept 5 clean sheets this season. Roman BĂŒrki guards the goal for St. Louis City, who have not managed to keep a clean sheet this season

Influences

Seattle Sounders showed strong defensive performance in home games with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 goals conceded. St. Louis City conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game away from home. No data available on weather or venue-specific historical influences

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