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Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - San Diego

04/19/2026, 01:30 AM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.9
Total xG
3.0
San Diego
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RSLSD

Real Salt Lake

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.63
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.12
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
Juan Manuel Sanabria on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Aiden Hezarkhani on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

San Diego

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.18
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)

  • 2
    San Diego: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    San Diego with Amahl Pellegrino: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

25%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Real Salt Lake's strong home offense (Avg. 2.33 goals per home game) meets San Diego's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 3.0 goals conceded per away game)
  • Real Salt Lake shows a positive form trend with increasing goal production (2.4 in recent games compared to 2.0 season average), while San Diego's goal production is declining (1.4 compared to 2.0 season average)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 53% probability
Risk Factors
  • San Diego concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • San Diego's goal production has been declining in recent games (1.4 goals) compared to their season average (2.0 goals)
  • San Diego is without the suspended C. Mcvey (Red Card) and injured goalkeeper P. Sisniega Fink (Back Injury)
Overview

Real Salt Lake (4th place, 13 points) hosts San Diego (8th place, 11 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The game will be played on April 19, 2026, 2:30 AM. Real Salt Lake aims to consolidate its strong league position, while San Diego will try to climb the table

Form

Real Salt Lake shows strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches (WWWDW). Their last result was a 3-1 win against Sporting KC. San Diego, on the other hand, has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses from their last 5 games (WDDLL) and suffered two recent defeats, including a 1-2 against Minnesota United

Statistics

Real Salt Lake averages 2.0 goals scored per game and concedes 1.33 goals per game this season. In home games, they average 2.33 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded. 5 out of 6 games saw both teams score and over 2.5 total goals. San Diego also averages 2.0 goals scored per game and concedes 1.43 goals per game this season. Away from home, San Diego concedes an average of 3.0 goals per game. 5 out of 7 games had over 2.5 total goals

Head-to-Head

In the 3 direct encounters so far, both teams have secured one win each, and one match ended in a draw. The goal difference is even at 6:6. The last meeting on March 22, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

For Real Salt Lake, Zavier Gozo stands out with 2 goals and 2 assists, an average rating of 7.33, and a rising form trend. Sergi Solans has scored 3 goals in 5 games with stable form. Diego Luna recently scored 2 goals in 5 games. For San Diego, Marcus Ingvartsen (4 goals, 2 assists) and Anders Dreyer (3 goals, 3 assists) are the season's top scorers, both with a declining form trend. Onni Valakari has contributed 3 goals, also with declining form

Goalkeepers

Real Salt Lake's goalkeeper, Rafael Cabral, has played 6 games this season and recorded 0 clean sheets. Duran Ferree, San Diego's goalkeeper, also featured 6 times and managed to keep 1 clean sheet

Influences

Real Salt Lake shows stronger performance at home with an average of 2.33 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded

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