Major League Soccer
Nashville SC - Charlotte
04/26/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.2
3.2
1.1
1:1
10%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
7%3:0
7%What influences the xG?
Nashville SC
Charlotte
League
The Lab
- 1Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 2Nashville SC: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- 3Charlotte: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Nashville SC with Sam Surridge: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Charlotte with Liel Abada: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
60%
Draw
22%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
40%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Nashville SC is the clear favorite with a 61% home win probability
- Strong Home Defense: Nashville SC boasts an outstanding home defense with an average of 0.33 goals conceded per home game
- Weak Away Defense: Charlotte concedes an average of 4.5 goals per game when playing away
Risk Factors
- Charlotte's improved offense: Currently 2.4 goals per game in recent matches, compared to 2.0 season average
- Nashville's slightly declining goal production: Currently 2.0 goals per game in recent matches, compared to 2.4 season average
Overview
Nashville SC (1st place, 19 points) host Charlotte (5th place, 14 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 1:30 AM. Nashville SC holds a leading position in the table and is a clear favorite according to mathematical predictions, with a home win probability of 61%
Form
Nashville SC displays excellent form with a record of WWLWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches. They have won their last two games. Charlotte has a form of WWLWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses), with their last match being a defeat. Nashville SC scored 10 goals and conceded 2 in their last five, while Charlotte scored 12 goals and conceded 8.
Statistics
Nashville SC averages 2.13 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.5 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets and had both teams score in 3 matches. At home, Nashville SC is particularly strong, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home game. Charlotte averages 1.78 goals per game but concedes 1.56 goals on average. Away from home, Charlotte averages 2.0 goals scored per game, but also conceded an average of 4.5 goals. Charlotte has seen both teams score in 7 matches and over 2.5 goals in 7 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 5 previous head-to-head matches, Nashville SC secured 3 wins, and Charlotte claimed 2 wins, with no draws. Nashville SC scored 7 goals in these encounters, while Charlotte scored 6. The last meeting on April 11, 2026, resulted in a 2-1 victory for Nashville SC away at Charlotte. Nashville SC has been dominant in recent matchups.
Key Players
For Nashville SC, Cristian Espinoza is key with 3 goals and 2 assists, averaging a 7.46 season rating, Hany Mukhtar has 2 goals and 3 assists with a 7.18 rating, and Patrick Yazbek contributed 1 goal and 3 assists with a 7.14 rating. For Charlotte, Pep Biel stands out with 4 goals and 4 assists, averaging a 7.25 rating, Archie Goodwin has 3 goals and 0 assists with a 6.89 rating, and Kerwin Vargas has 2 goals and 0 assists with a 6.78 rating. Not nominated: Idan Toklomati (3G/1A), Wilfried Zaha (2G/2A) from Charlotte.
Goalkeepers
Nashville SC's goalkeeper Brian Schwake has made 8 appearances. The Nashville SC team recorded 4 clean sheets this season. For Charlotte, Kristijan Kahlina played in 9 matches. His team achieved 1 clean sheet this season.
Influences
Nashville SC benefits from a strong home advantage, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home game this season.