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Major League Soccer

New England - Charlotte

05/02/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
New England
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Charlotte
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NECHA

New England

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.77
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.38
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
Brayan Ceballos not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Charlotte

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.20
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Harry Toffolo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Charlotte: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Charlotte with Luca de la Torre: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    New England with Jackson Yueill: 8.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    New England: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 5
    New England: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • New England's Home Strength: With an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home game, New England has a clear advantage. The mathematical model predicts a home win with 44% probability.
  • Clear Form Discrepancy: New England is unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins, 1 draw), while Charlotte shows a negative form trend with 3 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • Vulnerable Away Defense: Charlotte concedes an alarming average of 4.33 goals per away game, indicating a significant weakness in their away defense.
Risk Factors
  • Charlotte concedes an average of 4.33 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg), impacting their away performance.
  • Limited data available for duel statistics (totalDuels) in the last 5 games, making detailed analysis difficult.
  • Absences of key players: B. Ceballos JimĆ©nez (Doubtful) for New England and H. Toffolo (Doubtful) for Charlotte could affect team performance.
Overview

New England (4th place, 16 points) host Charlotte (5th place, 14 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The game takes place on May 3, 2026, 12:30 AM. Both teams are in the upper half of the table, competing for an improved position.

Form

New England shows strong form (WWWWD) with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games. Their last result was a 1-1 draw against Inter Miami. Charlotte's form (WLWLL) is mixed, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games, the last two ending in losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

New England scores an average of 1.89 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets. At home, they are strong with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game, with 2 home clean sheets. Charlotte scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1.8 goals per game. They kept 1 clean sheet. Away from home, Charlotte scores an average of 2.0 goals but concedes an alarming 4.33 goals per game and had no away clean sheets. Both teams scored in 6 of New England's matches and 8 of Charlotte's matches. Over 2.5 goals were seen in 6 matches for New England and 8 for Charlotte.

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, New England has 2 wins and Charlotte also has 2 wins. There have been no draws. New England scored 3 goals, while Charlotte scored 6 goals. The last encounter on August 30, 2025, ended in a 1:2 away victory for Charlotte. Recent dominance is even.

Key Players

For New England, the following players stand out: Carles Gil (Midfielder) with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a season average rating of 7.32. Dor Turgeman (Attacker) scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in the last 5 games with a season average rating of 6.96. Luca Langoni (Attacker) contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games and has a season average rating of 7.0. For Charlotte, the following players are important: Wilfried Zaha (Attacker) with 2 goals in the last 4 games and a season average rating of 7.24. Agyemang Morrison (Defender) scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with a season average rating of 6.99. Ashley Westwood (Midfielder) recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games and has a season average rating of 6.99.

Goalkeepers

New England's goalkeeper Matt Turner played 9 games and kept 2 clean sheets. Charlotte's goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina played 10 games and achieved 1 clean sheet.

Influences

New England demonstrates a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding only 0.33 goals per home game. Charlotte, on the other hand, shows a vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 4.33 goals per away match.

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