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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - Philadelphia Union

04/11/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.8
Total xG
3.4
Philadelphia Union
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
CMPU

CF Montréal

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.89
Defensive weakness (2.8 conceded vs 2 league avg)
+0.85
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.70
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Full strength squad available

Philadelphia Union

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+1.43
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.98
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.68
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
+0.04
37% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.63
+0.63
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

25%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for CF Montréal with a 42% probability
  • Philadelphia Union is in a deep crisis, having lost all 6 season games and earned 0 points
  • CF Montréal's improved offensive form is evident in their current average of 1.4 goals, compared to 1.2 goals season average
Risk Factors
  • Only 65% of Philadelphia Union's usual starting XI strength is available
  • CF Montréal concedes an average of 2.83 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview

CF Montréal (13th place, 3 points) host Philadelphia Union (15th place, 0 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 2:30 PM. Both teams are battling at the bottom of the table for crucial points and to catch up.

Form

CF Montréal shows a form of LWLLL with one win and four losses from their last five games. The team has recently suffered three consecutive losses. Philadelphia Union is currently in worse condition with a form of LLLLL, which corresponds to zero wins, zero draws, and five losses. They recorded five consecutive losses. CF Montréal is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 1.4 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals). Philadelphia Union is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 0.8 goals) than their season average (0.7 goals).

Statistics

CF Montréal scores an average of 1.17 goals per game and concedes 2.83 goals per game. The team recorded one clean sheet and all six games had over 2.5 goals. Philadelphia Union scores an average of 0.67 goals and concedes 1.83 goals per game. They kept no clean sheets and four out of six games had over 2.5 goals. Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game. CF Montréal has not played any home games this season, so all season statistics are based on away games.

Head-to-Head

In the four past head-to-head matches, CF Montréal secured one win, while Philadelphia Union won two games. One match ended in a draw. The goal difference is balanced at 8:8 goals. The last encounter was won by Philadelphia Union away with 2:1 on July 16, 2025. Philadelphia Union has been the more dominant team in recent direct encounters.

Key Players

For CF Montréal, Prince Owusu stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist, and an average rating of 7.17, whose form is rising. Wikelman José Carmona Torres contributed 3 goals and 1 assist, with a rating of 7.18. Iván Jaime has 1 assist and a rating of 7.04. For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski is an important attacking player with 1 goal and a rating of 6.82. Indiana Vassilev also scored 1 goal and has a rating of 6.66. Frankie Westfield, a defender, provided 1 assist and achieved a rating of 7.12.

Goalkeepers

For CF Montréal, Thomas Guilier is in goal, having kept one clean sheet this season. For Philadelphia Union, Andre Blake is the goalkeeper, who has not recorded any clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.77. In his last five games, his average rating was 6.84.

Influences

CF Montréal has not played a home game this season. There is no data available regarding venue influences, weather conditions, or specific pitch surface.

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