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Charlotte – New England1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Charlotte
1.76
Total xG
2.87
New England
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlotte | New England |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.56 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| Luca Langoni on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Charlotte with a probability of 51%
- Charlotte shows strong defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.9 goals per game
- New England has a very vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per away game
Risks
- Charlotte's recent goal production is declining, with 1.4 goals per game compared to the season average of 1.8 goals
- New England's recent goal production is declining, with 1.2 goals per game compared to the season average of 1.7 goals
All probabilities
Result
Charlotte51%
Draw26%
New England22%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Charlotte or draw78%
New England or draw49%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- New England: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- New England with Diego Fagúndez: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Charlotte with Rodolfo Aloko: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- New England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
Lineups
Charlotte 4-2-3-1 · New England 4-2-3-1
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 35 W. Cleary
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 3 T. Ream
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 10 W. Zaha
- 9 Idan Toklomati
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 8 M. Polster
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 25 P. Miller
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 11 D. Turgeman
Substitutes
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 4 A. Privett
- 7 A. Goodwin
- 11 L. Abada
- 13 B. Bronico
- 48 A. John
- 37 R. Aloko
- 22 F. Kessler
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 14 J. Yueill
- 33 D. Parisian
- 38 E. Klein
- 88 A. Farrell
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
- 35 C. Oliveira
- 19 D. McIntosh
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