Major League Soccer
Charlotte - New England
05/23/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.9
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Charlotte
New England
League
The Lab
- 1New England: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2New England: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3New England with Diego FagĆŗndez: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Charlotte with Rodolfo Aloko: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5New England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
26%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Charlotte with a probability of 51%
- Charlotte shows strong defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.9 goals per game
- New England has a very vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Charlotte's recent goal production is declining, with 1.4 goals per game compared to the season average of 1.8 goals
- New England's recent goal production is declining, with 1.2 goals per game compared to the season average of 1.7 goals
Overview
Charlotte (7th place, 18 points) hosts New England (3rd place, 25 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 23, 2026, 7:30 PM. New England is ahead of Charlotte in the table, with Charlotte looking to use their home advantage to close the gap.
Form
Charlotte's form in the last five league matches: LLDLW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). New England's form in the last five matches: DWWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Charlotte secured a 3-1 home win against Toronto in their last match, but previously suffered three losses and one draw. New England won two of their last three matches, including a 2-1 victory against Minnesota United.
Statistics
Charlotte has an average of 1.64 goals scored per game and also conceded 1.64 goals per game. At home, they are more offensive with an average of 1.7 goals and more solid defensively with 0.9 goals conceded. New England scores an average of 1.69 goals per game and concedes 1.31 goals. Away from home, New England scores an average of 1.67 goals but concedes a high 3.33 goals per game. Charlotte has recorded 1 clean sheet this season, while New England has 3. Both teams scored in 10 of Charlotte's games and 8 of New England's games. Charlotte had 10 matches with over 2.5 goals, and New England had 9.
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, Charlotte has 2 wins and New England has 3 wins, with no draws. Charlotte scored a total of 6 goals, New England 4. The last meeting on May 2, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for New England. New England has been the more dominant side in recent head-to-head matches.
Key Players
For Charlotte, key starting players include midfielder Pep Biel (7 goals, 4 assists, avg 7.27 rating, stable form), attacker Idan Toklomati (4 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.72 rating, stable form), and attacker Wilfried Zaha (3 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.13 rating, declining form). For New England, key players are midfielder Carles Gil (5 goals, 3 assists, avg 7.39 rating, rising form) and attacker Dor Turgeman (2 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.93 rating, stable form). Luca Langoni is not nominated (3 goals, 6 assists).
Goalkeepers
For Charlotte, Kristijan Kahlina is in goal, achieving 1 clean sheet in 14 appearances with an average rating of 7.03. New England's goalkeeper is Matt Turner, who has 3 clean sheets in 13 appearances and an average rating of 7.2.