Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union - DC United
04/18/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Philadelphia Union
DC United
League
The Lab
- 1Philadelphia Union: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- 2Philadelphia Union with Cavan Sullivan: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)
- 3Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games
- 4Philadelphia Union: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)
- 5Tai Baribo: 2 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 7 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
28%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Historical Record: Philadelphia Union is rated as the more dominant team in head-to-head matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
- Defensive Vulnerability: Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 2.5 goals per home game
- Offensive Trends: Both teams show a positive trend in goal-scoring according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
- Tight Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a small difference between home win (38%), draw (28%), and away win (34%)
- Low Shots on Target: DC United averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Key Player Absence: Philadelphia Union has to do without A. Anello, who was responsible for 16.7% of the team's seasonal goals
Overview
Philadelphia Union (15th place, 3 points) host DC United (9th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer
Match on April 18, 2026, 7:30 PM
Both teams urgently need points to climb the table
Form
Philadelphia Union's form in the last 5 matches is LLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They won their last match, marking one consecutive win
Philadelphia Union's recent form trend is rated as positive
DC United's form in the last 5 matches is LWDLL
They have lost their last two consecutive matches
DC United's recent form trend is rated as positive
Statistics
Philadelphia Union scores an average of 0.86 goals per game and concedes 1.71 goals per game
At home, they average 1.0 goals scored and concede 2.5 goals
DC United scores an average of 0.57 goals per game and concedes 1.29 goals per game
Away from home, they average 0.67 goals scored and concede 1.0 goals
Philadelphia Union's matches saw both teams score in 5 out of 7 cases and over 2.5 goals in 5 instances
DC United's matches saw both teams score in 2 out of 7 cases and over 2.5 goals in 3 instances
The mathematical analysis predicts a 60% probability for both teams to score
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% according to the model
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia Union secured 3 wins, DC United had 1 win, and there was 1 draw
Philadelphia Union scored a total of 15 goals in these matches, while DC United scored 3 goals
The last encounter on February 22, 2026, ended in a 0:1 victory for DC United
Philadelphia Union has shown dominance in recent encounters
Key Players
For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski is a key offensive player with 1 goal and 1 assist in 7 season appearances
JesĂșs Bueno in midfield has scored 1 season goal in 6 appearances
Japhet Sery Larsen, a defender, contributed 1 season goal in 6 appearances
For DC United, Tai Baribo is the most dangerous scorer with 3 goals in 6 season appearances
Matti Peltola in midfield scored 1 season goal in 7 appearances
Jackson Hopkins in midfield provided 1 season assist in 7 appearances
Goalkeepers
Andre Blake is the goalkeeper for Philadelphia Union and has not recorded any clean sheets this season
Sean Johnson is the goalkeeper for DC United and has recorded 2 clean sheets this season
Influences
Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 home goals scored and concedes 2.5 home goals
DC United averages 0.67 away goals scored and concedes 1.0 away goals