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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - DC United

04/18/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
1.5
Total xG
2.9
DC United
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PUDU

Philadelphia Union

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-1.09
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.70
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
A. Anello not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 0.9 goals/match)

DC United

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.34
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.30
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Philadelphia Union: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Philadelphia Union with Cavan Sullivan: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games

  • 4
    Philadelphia Union: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 5
    Tai Baribo: 2 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

28%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Historical Record: Philadelphia Union is rated as the more dominant team in head-to-head matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
  • Defensive Vulnerability: Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 2.5 goals per home game
  • Offensive Trends: Both teams show a positive trend in goal-scoring according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
  • Tight Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a small difference between home win (38%), draw (28%), and away win (34%)
  • Low Shots on Target: DC United averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Key Player Absence: Philadelphia Union has to do without A. Anello, who was responsible for 16.7% of the team's seasonal goals
Overview

Philadelphia Union (15th place, 3 points) host DC United (9th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on April 18, 2026, 7:30 PM

Both teams urgently need points to climb the table

Form

Philadelphia Union's form in the last 5 matches is LLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They won their last match, marking one consecutive win

Philadelphia Union's recent form trend is rated as positive

DC United's form in the last 5 matches is LWDLL

They have lost their last two consecutive matches

DC United's recent form trend is rated as positive

Statistics

Philadelphia Union scores an average of 0.86 goals per game and concedes 1.71 goals per game

At home, they average 1.0 goals scored and concede 2.5 goals

DC United scores an average of 0.57 goals per game and concedes 1.29 goals per game

Away from home, they average 0.67 goals scored and concede 1.0 goals

Philadelphia Union's matches saw both teams score in 5 out of 7 cases and over 2.5 goals in 5 instances

DC United's matches saw both teams score in 2 out of 7 cases and over 2.5 goals in 3 instances

The mathematical analysis predicts a 60% probability for both teams to score

The probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% according to the model

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia Union secured 3 wins, DC United had 1 win, and there was 1 draw

Philadelphia Union scored a total of 15 goals in these matches, while DC United scored 3 goals

The last encounter on February 22, 2026, ended in a 0:1 victory for DC United

Philadelphia Union has shown dominance in recent encounters

Key Players

For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski is a key offensive player with 1 goal and 1 assist in 7 season appearances

JesĂșs Bueno in midfield has scored 1 season goal in 6 appearances

Japhet Sery Larsen, a defender, contributed 1 season goal in 6 appearances

For DC United, Tai Baribo is the most dangerous scorer with 3 goals in 6 season appearances

Matti Peltola in midfield scored 1 season goal in 7 appearances

Jackson Hopkins in midfield provided 1 season assist in 7 appearances

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake is the goalkeeper for Philadelphia Union and has not recorded any clean sheets this season

Sean Johnson is the goalkeeper for DC United and has recorded 2 clean sheets this season

Influences

Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 home goals scored and concedes 2.5 home goals

DC United averages 0.67 away goals scored and concedes 1.0 away goals

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