🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - Portland Timbers

05/02/2026, 08:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Portland Timbers
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RSLPT

Real Salt Lake

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.41
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03

Portland Timbers

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake with Lukas Engel: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

26%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Real Salt Lake has a home win probability of 53% according to mathematical analysis
  • Real Salt Lake's offensive strength is evident with an average of 7.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Portland Timbers concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
Risk Factors
  • The head-to-head record shows Portland Timbers as more dominant in the last 5 direct encounters (2 wins to 1 win for RSL)
  • Limited data available for venue history and detailed duel statistics
Overview

Real Salt Lake (6th place, 16 points) host Portland Timbers (13th place, 10 points) in Major League Soccer

The match will take place on May 2, 2026, 9:45 PM

Real Salt Lake aims to solidify its position in the playoff spots

Form

Real Salt Lake has shown the form DWWLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) in their last five matches

Their last result was a 1-2 loss away against LA Galaxy

Portland Timbers have shown the form DLWLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) in their last five matches

They recently secured a 2-1 away win against San Diego

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Real Salt Lake scores an average of 1.83 goals and concedes 1.17 goals per home game

Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 2.75 goals per away game

Overall, Real Salt Lake had both teams score and over 2.5 goals in 7 matches

For Portland Timbers, both teams scored in 7 matches, and 6 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Real Salt Lake recorded 1 win, Portland Timbers had 2 wins, and there were 2 draws

Real Salt Lake scored a total of 5 goals, while Portland Timbers scored 9 goals

The last encounter on October 23, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for Portland Timbers

Key Players

For Real Salt Lake, Sergi Solans is a key player with 5 season goals and 1 assist, plus 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Zavier Gozo registered 2 season goals and 3 assists, including 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rising form trend

Diego Luna contributed 2 season goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde scored 3 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games

Kevin Kelsy scored 2 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games

Cole Bassett provided 2 assists in the season and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Real Salt Lake goalkeeper Rafael Cabral has no clean sheets in 9 season appearances

James Pantemis, the Portland Timbers goalkeeper, also recorded no clean sheets in 9 season appearances

Influences

Real Salt Lake scores 1.83 goals at home and concedes 1.17 goals, indicating a home advantage

Portland Timbers concedes an average of 2.75 goals away, suggesting a weak defense on the road

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.