Major League Soccer
New York RB - New York City
05/16/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.8
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
New York RB
New York City
League
The Lab
- 1New York RB with Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting: 12.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2New York City with Arnau FarnĆ³s: 7.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- 3New York RB: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
28%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Similar recent form: Both teams have won their last two games and show a DLLWW form
- Historical away dominance: New York City won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches, including the last game
- High-scoring clash expected: The Red Bull Arena averages 4.2 goals per game, and the model predicts a 58% probability for both teams to score
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Both teams had only 3 days rest since their last match
- Away team's defensive weakness: New York City concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
- Injury situations: New York RB is without A. Marcucci and J. Choupo-Moting is doubtful, while New York City are missing K. O'Toole, A. Baiera, A. MartĆnez Batista, A. O'Neill, and T. Bacelar Martins
Overview
New York RB (6th place, 18 points) host New York City (5th place, 18 points) at the Red Bull Arena. This Major League Soccer match takes place on May 16, 2026, 7:30 PM. Both teams are level on points in the table and are aiming for a better position.
Form
New York RB's form over the last 5 games is DLLWW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). They have won their last two matches. New York City also has a form of DLLWW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and has secured victories in their last two outings. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
New York RB scored an average of 1.69 goals per game this season and conceded 2.31 goals. At home, they score 1.71 goals and concede 1.86 goals per game. New York City scores an average of 1.77 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals. Away, they score 2.0 goals and concede 2.5 goals. New York RB had both teams scoring in 9 games and over 2.5 goals in 9 games. New York City recorded both teams scoring in 7 games and over 2.5 goals in 7 games. The Red Bull Arena sees an average of 4.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New York City dominated with 4 wins compared to 1 win for New York RB. The goal difference is 6:12 in favor of New York City. The last encounter on September 27, 2025, ended with a 3:2 away win for New York City.
Key Players
For New York RB, Julian Hall is a key attacker with 9 goals and 2 assists this season, including 4 goals in the last 5 games. Jorge Ruvalcaba contributes 4 goals, with 3 in the last 5 games, showing a rising form trend. Ronald Donkor is an important midfielder with 1 goal and 4 assists, providing 3 assists in the last 5 games. For New York City, NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau stands out with 9 goals and 2 assists, including 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games. Hannes Wolf has scored 5 goals and assisted 2 times this season, with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and rising form. Maxi Moralez is a central force in midfield with 1 goal and 6 assists.
Goalkeepers
Ethan Horvath of New York RB played 13 season games and achieved 1 clean sheet with his team. Matt Freese of New York City also played 13 times this season and recorded 3 clean sheets with his team.
Influences
The Red Bull Arena is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 4.2 goals per game. In 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were seen in 3 out of 5 matches. New York RB scored an average of 1.71 goals at home and conceded 1.86 goals. New York City scored 2.0 goals away and conceded 2.5 goals.