Major League Soccer
Charlotte - Toronto
05/16/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.7
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Charlotte
Toronto
League
The Lab
- 1Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- 2Toronto: 87% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Charlotte: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Charlotte with Brandt Bronico: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Toronto: 93% of all goals in the second half (13 of 14, last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
28%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Home strength and dominance: Charlotte is defensively strong at home and has won the last 3 head-to-head matches
- Form curve divergence: Toronto shows a recent positive trend in goal production, while Charlotte stagnates
- Offensive matchup: The mathematical analysis predicts 1.59 expected goals for Charlotte compared to 1.09 for Toronto
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Charlotte had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Goal-scoring efficiency: Charlotte averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Offensive absences: For Toronto, Josh Sargent (2G/1A) and JosƩ Cifuentes (1G/1A) are not in the lineup, reducing the usual starting XI strength to 95%
Overview
Charlotte (9th place, 15 points) host Toronto (10th place, 14 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The game takes place on May 16, 2026, at 7:30 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table, looking to distance themselves from the relegation zone.
Form
Charlotte's form across all competitions is LLLDL. In their last 5 games, they recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. Their last result was a loss. Toronto's form across all competitions is DDLDL. In their last 5 games, they have 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Their last result was a loss.
Statistics
Charlotte averaged 1.54 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.69 goals. At home, they are defensively stronger, conceding an average of 0.89 goals per game. Toronto has a season average of 1.67 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game. Charlotte kept 1 clean sheet in 13 games, while Toronto also managed 1 clean sheet in 12 games.
Head-to-Head
Charlotte has the upper hand in 4 head-to-head matches against Toronto. Charlotte won 3 games, while Toronto secured 1 victory, with no draws. Charlotte scored a total of 7 goals, Toronto 3. The last encounter saw Charlotte win 2-0 on July 26, 2025, highlighting the home team's recent dominance.
Key Players
For Charlotte, Pep Biel (6 goals, 4 assists, Avg Rating 7.19), Idan Toklomati (4 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.73), and Wilfried Zaha (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 7.06) are key players. For Toronto, DĆ”niel SallĆ³i (4 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 6.98), Kobe Franklin (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 6.58), and Emilio AristizĆ”bal (3 goals, 0 assists, Avg Rating 6.76) are crucial to watch.
Goalkeepers
Charlotte relies on goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina, who has recorded 1 clean sheet this season. For Toronto, Luka Gavran is in goal, also achieving 1 clean sheet this season.
Influences
Charlotte has performed well in home games, scoring an average of 1.56 goals and conceding only 0.89 goals per match. Toronto, on the other hand, conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away game, indicating a defensive weakness on the road. No data on venue history or weather influences is available.