🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - Portland Timbers

05/13/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Portland Timbers
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CMPT

CF Montréal

Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.10
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
Prince Owusu on the bench (6 goals, 5 assists)
Iván Jaime on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 52% available)

Portland Timbers

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.08
Antony on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    CF Montréal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    CF Montréal with Samuel Piette  : 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter: 11 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    CF Montréal: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

26%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: A home win for CF Montréal is calculated with a 54% probability
  • Critical Squad Impact: CF Montréal must contend with only 53% of usual starting XI goal threat without Prince Owusu and Iván Jaime
  • Away Defensive Weakness: Portland Timbers conceded an average of 4.33 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head matches
  • Portland Timbers with only 3 days rest since last match
Overview

CF Montréal (12th place, 12 points) host the Portland Timbers (13th place, 13 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The game takes place on May 14, 2026, 1:30 AM. Both teams are in the lower midfield of the table and are looking for crucial points to move up in the league

Form

CF Montréal's last five games show a form of LWWLW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their last match was a win. Portland Timbers also have a form of WLWLW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses) in their last five games. Their last result was also a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

CF Montréal scored 2 goals and conceded 0 goals in their last match

Portland Timbers scored 6 goals and conceded 0 goals in their last match

Statistics

CF Montréal scored an average of 1.45 goals per game this season and conceded 2.09 goals

At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per home game

Portland Timbers scored an average of 1.73 goals per game this season and conceded 1.91 goals

Away, the Timbers averaged 2 goals scored and 4.33 goals conceded per away game

CF Montréal's matches saw over 2.5 goals scored nine times

Portland Timbers' matches saw over 2.5 goals scored seven times

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches between these two teams were found in the dataset

Key Players

For CF Montréal, Matty Longstaff (2 goals, 1 assist, rising form) and Victor Loturi (1 goal, 1 assist, stable form) are important midfield players

Daniel Ríos contributed 1 goal in 4 games to the attack and shows stable form

For the Portland Timbers, Kevin Kelsy stands out with 4 goals and 2 assists, showing rising form

Kristoffer Velde scored 4 goals this season and shows stable form

Cole Bassett contributed 1 goal and 2 assists and has stable form

Goalkeepers

CF Montréal's goalkeeper is Thomas Gillier, with no season appearance data available

The team has achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Portland Timbers' goalkeeper is James Pantemis with 11 appearances and an average rating of 7.18

The team has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

CF Montréal shows a stronger defense at home, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game

Portland Timbers conceded an average of 4.33 goals per away game

The dataset contains no information on weather-related influences

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.