Major League Soccer
Toronto - SJ Earthquakes
05/02/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.7
1.3
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
6%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Toronto
SJ Earthquakes
League
The Lab
- 1Toronto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- 2SJ Earthquakes: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- 3SJ Earthquakes with Dave Romney: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Toronto: 83% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5SJ Earthquakes: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
29%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Strong Form: SJ Earthquakes are league leaders and won their last 5 games consecutively
- Defensive Stability: SJ Earthquakes boast an impressive seasonal defense with an average of only 0.6 goals conceded
- Tactical Superiority: SJ Earthquakes averaged 7.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Toronto's 5.0
Risk Factors
- Reduced offensive strength for Toronto, as Josh Sargent (2G/1A), Richie Laryea (2G/1A), and JosƩ Cifuentes (1G/1A) are not in the squad, accounting for 68% of the team's usual goal threat
- Toronto's defensive vulnerability, with an average of 2.2 goals conceded in their last 5 games compared to the season average of 1.9 goals conceded
- SJ Earthquakes' goalkeeper Daniel's form shows a declining trend (-0.36 delta)
Overview
Toronto (6th place, 13 points) hosts SJ Earthquakes (1st place, 27 points) in a Major League Soccer match
The game is scheduled for May 2, 2026, 6:00 PM
The visitors from San Jose lead the league, while Toronto is in mid-table
Form
Toronto's form in the last 5 games is WDDDL
This translates to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
SJ Earthquakes show a perfect form of WWWWW
They won all of their last 5 games
Toronto recently lost 1-2 to Atlanta United, while SJ Earthquakes won 3-2 against St. Louis City
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Toronto scores an average of 1.7 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.9 goals this season
At home, these values slightly improve to 1.75 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per home game
SJ Earthquakes are stronger offensively with 2.5 goals per game and very stable defensively with only 0.6 goals conceded on average
Away from home, the Earthquakes score 2.4 goals and concede 0.8 goals per game
Toronto played with both teams scoring in 8 of 10 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 matches
SJ Earthquakes had both teams scoring in 4 of 10 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head data between Toronto and SJ Earthquakes is available in the provided dataset
Key Players
For Toronto, DĆ”niel SallĆ³i (3 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.93 rating) and Kobe Franklin (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.57 rating) are important offensive players in the last 5 games
Alonso Coello (0 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.22 rating) is a key midfielder
For SJ Earthquakes, Preston Judd (6 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.17 rating) stands out
Ousseni Bouda (5 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.10 rating) also contributes to goal threat
Niko Tsakiris (2 goals, 3 assists, avg 7.64 rating) is a key player in midfield
Goalkeepers
Goalkeeper Luka Gavran from Toronto has kept 1 clean sheet this season
Daniel, the goalkeeper for SJ Earthquakes, has kept his net clean in 5 games
Influences
Toronto shows solid home strength with an average of 1.75 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded at home
SJ Earthquakes are very strong away from home with 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded