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Major League Soccer

DC United - Chicago Fire

05/13/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
DC United
1.6
Total xG
3.0
Chicago Fire
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DUCF

DC United

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.66
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.38
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.21
Silvan Hefti not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Chicago Fire

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.12
Maren Haile-Selassie on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chicago Fire: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    DC United with Nikola Markovic: 5.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Chicago Fire: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Chicago Fire with P. Dithejane: 7.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Chicago Fire: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

27%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Tactical contrast: DC United's counter-attacking style (avg 36% possession) meets Chicago Fire's possession-based approach (avg 56% possession) in recent matches
  • Form trend: DC United is unbeaten in its last 5 matches, while Chicago Fire has suffered two consecutive losses recently
  • Offensive efficiency: Chicago Fire has a higher season average of 1.82 goals per game and scores 2.0 goals in away games, compared to DC United's 1.25 home goals
Risk Factors
  • DC United has only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Chicago Fire concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview

DC United (5th place, 16 points) host Chicago Fire (4th place, 17 points) in Major League Soccer. The match will take place on May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM. Both teams are closely ranked in the upper half of the table.

Form

DC United shows stable form with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games (Form: DDWWD). Their last match ended in a draw. Chicago Fire has a form of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses (Form: WDWLL). Chicago Fire lost their last two consecutive matches.

Statistics

DC United scores an average of 1.25 home goals per game and concedes an average of 2.0 home goals. Chicago Fire scores an average of 2.0 away goals per game and also concedes 2.0 goals per away game. Over the entire season, DC United averages 1.25 goals scored per game and concedes 1.42 goals. Chicago Fire is stronger offensively with an average of 1.82 goals per game and concedes 1.27 goals. The mathematical analysis predicts a 62% probability for both teams to score and a 58% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, DC United secured 2 wins, Chicago Fire had 1 win, and there were 2 draws. DC United scored 8 goals in these encounters, while Chicago Fire scored 12 goals. The last direct duel on March 15, 2026, saw DC United win 2-1 away against Chicago Fire. Notably, Chicago Fire also achieved a 7-1 home victory against DC United on June 7, 2025.

Key Players

For DC United, Tai Baribo with 6 season goals (3 in last 5 games) and Louis Munteanu with 4 season goals (all 4 in last 5 games) show rising form. Jackson Hopkins contributed 2 goals and 2 assists this season, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. For Chicago Fire, Hugo Cuypers stands out with 10 season goals, 6 of which were in the last 5 games. Philip Zinckernagel impressed with 4 goals and 4 assists this season, showing rising form with 3 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games. Jonathan Bamba has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists this season, with 2 assists in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson is the goalkeeper for DC United, recording 4 clean sheets in 12 appearances. Chris Brady guarded Chicago Fire's goal in 11 appearances, achieving 5 clean sheets this season.

Influences

DC United conceded an average of 2.0 goals in home games. Chicago Fire scored an average of 2.0 goals in away games and also conceded 2.0 goals per away game. No weather data available.

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