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Cincinnati – Orlando City6 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Cincinnati
2.07
Total xG
3.38
Orlando City
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cincinnati | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.59 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.02 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Cincinnati's offensive strength: The team currently scores more often (2.6 goals) than their season average (2.1 goals), indicating a positive form trend
- Orlando's extreme away weakness: With an average of 5.0 goals conceded per away game, Orlando City shows significant defensive problems on the road
- Pipeline's home advantage forecast: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 54% probability and 2.07 expected home goals
Risks
- Cincinnati's defensive vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game
- High risk for Over 2.5 goals: The mathematical analysis shows a 66% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match
All probabilities
Result
Cincinnati54%
Draw24%
Orlando City23%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Double chance
Cincinnati or draw77%
Orlando City or draw46%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
6:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City with Luis Otávio: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Orlando City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Cincinnati with Ayoub Jabbari: 11.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Cincinnati: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 20)
- Cincinnati: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Cincinnati 3-4-2-1 · Orlando City 3-4-2-1
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 11 S. Gidi
- 21 M. Miazga
- 24 K. Smith
- 20 P. Bucha
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 9 A. Denkey
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 24 G. Dorsey
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 22 J. Ellis
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 10 M. Ojeda
Substitutes
- 3 G. Flores Melgarejo
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 13 E. Louro
- 16 T. Barlow
- 27 B. Anunga
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 88 A. Chirila
- 55 A. Lajhar
- 12 Javier Otero
- 13 D. McGuire
- 14 T. Spicer
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 29 T. Reid-Brown
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 5 L. de Aquino
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