Major League Soccer
Cincinnati - Orlando City
05/23/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.4
1.3
1:1
10%2:1
10%2:0
7%3:1
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Cincinnati
Orlando City
League
The Lab
- 1Orlando City with Luis Otávio: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Orlando City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 3Cincinnati with Ayoub Jabbari: 11.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Cincinnati: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 20)
- 5Cincinnati: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
24%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
66%
Under 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
44%
Under 3.5
56%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Cincinnati's offensive strength: The team currently scores more often (2.6 goals) than their season average (2.1 goals), indicating a positive form trend
- Orlando's extreme away weakness: With an average of 5.0 goals conceded per away game, Orlando City shows significant defensive problems on the road
- Pipeline's home advantage forecast: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 54% probability and 2.07 expected home goals
Risk Factors
- Cincinnati's defensive vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game
- High risk for Over 2.5 goals: The mathematical analysis shows a 66% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match
Overview
Cincinnati (9th place, 17 points) host Orlando City (11th place, 14 points) in Major League Soccer
The match takes place on May 24, 2026, 1:30 AM
Both teams are in the mid-table standings
Form
Cincinnati's form across all competitions is WWDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Their last game ended in a draw
Orlando City's form across all competitions is LWLWD
The team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Orlando City also drew their most recent game
Statistics
Cincinnati shows offensive strength this season with an average of 2.14 goals scored per game, while their defense is vulnerable with 2.5 goals conceded per game
At home, Cincinnati scores an average of 2.0 goals and concedes 1.71 goals
Orlando City scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes an alarming 2.71 goals per game
Orlando City's away numbers are particularly weak with 1.4 goals scored and 5.0 goals conceded per game
Cincinnati kept 2 clean sheets, while Orlando City has none
Both teams scored in 10 of Cincinnati's 14 games, and in 9 of Orlando City's 14 games
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 of Cincinnati's games and 10 of Orlando City's games
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches between these teams, Cincinnati dominated with 2 wins compared to Orlando City's 1 win
One match ended in a draw
The goal difference is level at 5:5
The last encounter on September 28, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
Key players for Cincinnati include Kévin Denkey, who scored 8 goals and 2 assists in 13 appearances and shows a stable form trend
Midfielder Evander impressed with 7 goals and 3 assists in 13 games with rising form
Pavel Bucha contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 13 games
For Orlando City, Martín Ojeda is crucial with 9 goals in 14 games and stable form
Adrián Marín is an important defender with 3 assists in 12 games
Griffin Dorsey shows rising form with 2 goals in 11 games
Goalkeepers
Roman Celentano is Cincinnati's goalkeeper with a season average rating of 6.81 and 2 clean sheets
Orlando City's goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau has a season average rating of 6.74 and has not kept a clean sheet this season
Influences
Cincinnati scores an average of 2.0 goals at home and concedes 1.71 goals
Orlando City shows high vulnerability away from home with an average of 5.0 goals conceded per game