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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - Columbus Crew

05/16/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Columbus Crew
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PUCC

Philadelphia Union

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-1.04
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.55
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
15% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Columbus Crew

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.49
Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.47
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Taha Habroune on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.77
+0.77
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew with Dylan Chambost: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Columbus Crew: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Philadelphia Union: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Columbus Crew: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

27%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis shows an away win probability of 39% for Columbus Crew
  • Columbus Crew dominates head-to-head matches, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters
  • Philadelphia Union shows a positive attacking form with an average of 1.8 goals recently, according to advanced statistics
Risk Factors
  • Philadelphia Union had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Columbus Crew had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Columbus Crew concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
Overview

Philadelphia Union (15th place, 6 points) hosts Columbus Crew (13th place, 12 points) at Subaru Park

Major League Soccer match on May 17, 2026, 1:30 AM

Both teams are in the lower half of the league table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Philadelphia Union's form in the last five games is DLDLL

This includes 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

The last result was a loss

Columbus Crew shows a form of WWLLL

This comprises 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses

The last result was a loss

According to advanced statistics, Philadelphia Union is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 1.8 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.2 goals)

Columbus Crew scores consistently with an average of 1.6 goals per game

Statistics

Philadelphia Union has scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded 1.77 goals

In home games, the team scored 1.0 goals and conceded 2.5 goals

Columbus Crew averages 1.38 goals scored per game and conceded 1.69 goals

In away games, Columbus Crew scored 1.38 goals and conceded 2.0 goals

Philadelphia Union kept 2 clean sheets, Columbus Crew also kept 2 clean sheets

For Philadelphia Union, 8 games ended with both teams scoring (BTTS)

For Columbus Crew, 9 games ended with both teams scoring (BTTS)

8 Philadelphia Union games had over 2.5 goals

9 Columbus Crew games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches in total

Columbus Crew won 4 of these games, Philadelphia Union none

One match ended in a draw

The goal difference is 4:9 in favor of Columbus Crew

The last encounter on April 25, 2026, resulted in a 0:2 away win for Columbus Crew

Columbus Crew has been the dominant team in recent matchups

Key Players

For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski is an important attacker with 3 season goals and 1 assist

Ben Bender shows a rising form curve with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 2 games

Nathan Harriel, a defender, contributed with 1 goal and 1 assist to the offense

On the side of Columbus Crew, Max Arfsten is a key player with 4 season goals and 4 assists

Diego Rossi scored 5 season goals and 1 assist

Hugo Picard recorded 1 season goal and 2 assists with rising form

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake is the goalkeeper for Philadelphia Union and has recorded 2 clean sheets this season

Patrick Schulte guards the goal for Columbus Crew and also achieved 2 clean sheets

Influences

Philadelphia Union has scored an average of 1.0 goals at home and conceded 2.5 goals

Columbus Crew has scored an average of 1.38 goals away and conceded 2.0 goals

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