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Major League Soccer

New England - Minnesota United

05/16/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
New England
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Minnesota United
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NEMU

New England

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.93
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14

Minnesota United

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.77
+0.77
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New England: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    New England: 84% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    New England with Diego FagĂșndez: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    New England: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    New England: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 12)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

29%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • The pipeline forecast indicates an extremely balanced match, with home win (36%) and away win (35%) probabilities nearly identical and expected goals of 1.39 to 1.38
  • New England shows a solid defense at home with an average of 0.67 goals conceded per game, while Minnesota United concedes an average of 1.67 goals away from home
  • Minnesota United recorded an average of 4.4 shots on target in the last 5 games, compared to New England's 3.8 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • New England has had a short break of only 3 days since their last match
  • Minnesota United also had a very short break of only 2 days since their last match
Overview

New England (3rd place, 22 points) host Minnesota United (6th place, 21 points) in Major League Soccer

The match takes place on May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM

Both teams are closely ranked in the table and are vying for a better position

Form

New England shows a current form of WDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games across all competitions

Their last match ended in a 0-3 loss against Nashville SC

Minnesota United has a form of WLWDL with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

Most recently, Minnesota United lost away 0-1 against Colorado Rapids

Statistics

New England has scored an average of 1.67 goals per game this season and conceded 1.33 goals

At home, they are defensively stable, with an average of 0.67 goals conceded and 1.67 goals scored per home game

They kept three clean sheets and had both teams score in seven matches

Minnesota United averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded per game

Away from home, they scored an average of 1.22 goals and conceded 1.67 goals

They achieved four clean sheets, and both teams scored in six matches

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches between New England and Minnesota United found in the dataset

Key Players

For New England, Carles Gil (Midfielder) has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists this season, with an average rating of 7.35

In the last five games, he scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists, and his form trend is stable

Luca Langoni (Attacker) recorded 2 goals and 6 assists with a season average rating of 6.96

In the last five games, he scored 1 goal, and his form trend is declining

Dor Turgeman (Attacker) has 2 goals and 4 assists and an average rating of 6.92

In the last five games, he provided 1 assist, and his form trend is stable

For Minnesota United, Kelvin Yeboah (Attacker) is the top scorer with 7 seasonal goals

He scored 2 goals in the last five games, and his form trend is declining

Anthony Markanich Jr. (Defender) showed strong offensive contributions with 4 goals and 2 assists this season

In the last five matches, he scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist, indicating a rising form trend

JoaquĂ­n Pereyra (Midfielder) scored 1 goal and provided 4 assists this season, and recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last five games, his form trend is stable

Goalkeepers

Matt Turner is the goalkeeper for New England and has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Drake Callender is the goalkeeper for Minnesota United and recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

New England shows a strong defense at home, with an average of only 0.67 goals conceded per game

Their offense scores an average of 1.67 goals

Minnesota United concedes an average of 1.67 goals away from home and scores 1.22 goals per away game

The home team has a statistical advantage regarding the goals conceded rate

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