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Major League Soccer

St. Louis City - Colorado Rapids

07/26/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
St. Louis City
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Colorado Rapids
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
SLCCR

St. Louis City

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.31
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.31
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Colorado Rapids

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.70
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.28
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.21
Wayne Frederick not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Lucas Herrington on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    St. Louis City: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Colorado Rapids: 75% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Colorado Rapids with Hamzat Ojediran: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Form Gap: St. Louis City is unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Colorado Rapids lost 3 of their last 5 matches
  • Home and Away discrepancy: St. Louis City concedes only 0.9 goals on average at home, while Colorado allows a high average of 2.5 goals in away games
  • Offensive threat: St. Louis City averaged a strong 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Squad impact: Colorado Rapids must play without international call-up Wayne Frederick (2 goals, 2 assists)
Overview

St. Louis City (8th place, 22 points) host Colorado Rapids (11th place, 19 points) at Energizer Park

MLS match on July 26, 2026, 2:30 AM

Both teams aim to climb the standings

Form

St. Louis City in strong form: "WDWWW" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recent run shows 4 wins and 1 draw

Colorado Rapids inconsistent: "LWLLW"

Guests recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last games

Statistics

St. Louis City scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 1.44 goals per match

Colorado Rapids average 1.63 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game

St. Louis shows a solid home defense with only 0.9 goals conceded per match

Rapids concede an extremely vulnerable average of 2.5 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in history

Colorado Rapids with 3 wins compared to 1 win for St. Louis City and 1 draw

Goal difference is 8 to 2 in favor of the Rapids

The last encounter on May 10, 2026 ended in a 1-0 away victory for St. Louis City

Key Players

Marcel Hartel shines in midfield with 5 goals, 3 assists and a 7.82 rating

Simon Becher in attack records 2 goals and 4 assists

Daniel Ethan Edelman contributes 1 goal and 2 assists in midfield

Rafael Navarro leads the visitors with 8 goals, 3 assists and a 7.26 rating

Paxten Aaronson stands out with 4 goals and 4 assists in midfield

Hamzat Ojediran has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist this season

Goalkeepers

Roman Bürki starts in goal for St. Louis, recording 2 clean sheets this season

Nicolas Hansen guarded the Rapids' goal in the last 5 games and has kept 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

At Energizer Park on natural grass, history shows an average of 3.6 goals scored per game

The BTTS rate at the stadium stands at a high 80%

St. Louis City benefits from a strong defense in front of their home fans, conceding just 0.9 goals per home match

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