Match report →
St. Louis City – Colorado Rapids1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.55
Total xG
2.55
Colorado Rapids
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.70 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wayne Frederick not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lucas Herrington on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form Gap: St. Louis City is unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Colorado Rapids lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Home and Away discrepancy: St. Louis City concedes only 0.9 goals on average at home, while Colorado allows a high average of 2.5 goals in away games
- Offensive threat: St. Louis City averaged a strong 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Fatigue: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Squad impact: Colorado Rapids must play without international call-up Wayne Frederick (2 goals, 2 assists)
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City49%
Draw29%
Colorado Rapids23%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw77%
Colorado Rapids or draw51%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- St. Louis City: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Colorado Rapids: 75% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Colorado Rapids with Hamzat Ojediran: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-3 · Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 99 J. Orozco
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 6 C. Wallem
- 8 C. Durkin
- 24 D. Edelman
- 14 T. Totland
- 77 S. Jeong
- 17 M. Hartel
- 11 S. Becher
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 4 R. Cannon
- 22 L. Herrington
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 12 J. Atencio
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 77 D. Yapi
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
- 7 D. Sealy
Substitutes
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 28 M. Perez
- 39 B. Lundt
- 59 M. Joyner
- 27 F. Fol
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 10 E. Löwen
- 29 P. Ault
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 33 K. Thompson
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 32 D. Phillip
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