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Real Salt Lake – SJ Earthquakes1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Salt Lake
1.77
Total xG
3.11
SJ Earthquakes
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Salt Lake | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Aiden Hezarkhani on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Niko Tsakiris not in squad (3 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Daniel Munie on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Eduard Löwen on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form contrast: SJ Earthquakes are unbeaten in 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), while Real Salt Lake lost 4 of their last 5 games
- Away attacking strength: SJ Earthquakes average 1.79 goals per away match
- Model prediction: Calculations indicate a 46% home win probability and a 63% chance of both teams scoring
Risks
- Real Salt Lake averaged 0.8 goals per match recently, below their season average of 1.46
- SJ Earthquakes play with 4 days of rest since their last match
- D. Luna is sidelined for the hosts due to a knee injury (5 season goals)
All probabilities
Result
Real Salt Lake46%
Draw26%
SJ Earthquakes28%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Real Salt Lake or draw72%
SJ Earthquakes or draw54%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SJ Earthquakes: 8 of 21 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Real Salt Lake: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- SJ Earthquakes: 31% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 16)
- Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1 · SJ Earthquakes 5-3-2
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 44 L. De Fougerolles
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 6 S. Spierings
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 9 M. Guilavogui
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 3 P. Marie
- 25 M. Floriani
- 4 D. Romney
- 18 R. Roberts
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 6 I. Harkes
- 34 B. Leroux
- 19 P. Judd
- 7 O. Bouda
Substitutes
- 23 C. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 19 A. Piol
- 29 S. Junqua
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 34 L. Moisa
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 98 A. Katranis
- 11 T. Werner
- 5 D. Munie
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 36 E. Edwards Jr.
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 21 N. Buck
- 23 E. Löwen
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 9 L. Jovanovic
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