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Major League Soccer

DC United - Toronto

07/25/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
DC United
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Toronto
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DUTOR

DC United

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.83
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.38
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.05
Full strength squad available

Toronto

Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.68
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.23
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.11
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02
Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    DC United: 4 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)

  • 2
    DC United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Toronto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Toronto with Jules-Anthony Vilsaint: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1.8 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Toronto: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Recently DC United averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target per game with a counter-attacking style
  • DC United currently scores more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.6) while Toronto's goal production stalls at 1.3
  • Toronto's extreme away weakness with an average of 2.75 goals conceded per match on the road
Risk Factors
  • DC United with only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • DC United concedes an average of 2.0 goals in home matches
  • Recently Toronto averaged a mere 2.8 shots on target per match in past games
Overview

DC United hosts Toronto at Audi Field

MLS match on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

DC United is in 9th place with 19 points

Toronto sits in 12th place with 16 points

The home win probability is calculated at 39%

Form

DC United enters with form DLDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts are winless in their last 5 matches with 4 draws and 1 defeat

Toronto arrives with a form string of LLLDD

The visitors remained winless in their last 5 games with 2 draws and 3 losses

Statistics

DC United averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded

At home the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals per game

Toronto scores an average of 1.38 goals per match while conceding 1.81

On the road Toronto concedes a highly vulnerable average of 2.75 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Even record with 1 win for each team and 2 draws

Goal difference is balanced at 7 to 7

The last meeting ended in a 2-0 win for Toronto

Key Players

Tai Baribo leads DC United with 9 goals this season

Louis Munteanu contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

Peglow has recorded 1 goal and 3 assists

For Toronto DĆ”niel SallĆ³i scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists

Emilio AristizƔbal scored 3 goals with a rating of 6.75

Kobe Franklin has recorded 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson guards the goal for DC United and has 1 clean sheet

Luka Gavran is in goal for Toronto and has recorded 3 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Audi Field

Audi Field historically averages a high-scoring 4.6 goals per game

The model estimates a 57% probability for both teams to score

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