Match report →
DC United – Toronto2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.46
Total xG
2.75
Toronto
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.83 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.68 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Recently DC United averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target per game with a counter-attacking style
- DC United currently scores more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.6) while Toronto's goal production stalls at 1.3
- Toronto's extreme away weakness with an average of 2.75 goals conceded per match on the road
Risks
- DC United with only 2 days of rest since their last match
- DC United concedes an average of 2.0 goals in home matches
- Recently Toronto averaged a mere 2.8 shots on target per match in past games
All probabilities
Result
DC United39%
Draw29%
Toronto32%
Double chance
DC United or draw68%
Toronto or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- DC United: 4 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)
- DC United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Toronto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Toronto with Jules-Anthony Vilsaint: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1.8 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
- Toronto: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
DC United 4-4-2 · Toronto 3-4-2-1
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 23 B. Servania
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 9 T. Baribo
- 11 L. Munteanu
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 38 J. Gilman
- 19 K. Franklin
- 22 R. Laryea
- 21 J. Osorio
- 20 D. Salloi
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Substitutes
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 13 S. Nealis
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 77 H. Kijima
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 32 O. Avilez
- 78 M. Henry
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 99 J. Vilsaint
- 29 D. Kerr
- 77 A. De Rosario
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