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Portland Timbers – Real Salt Lake2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.35
Total xG
2.78
Real Salt Lake
1.43
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.80 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.78 | +0.78 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| Kristoffer Velde on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Portland averaged 2.0 goals per game recently, higher than their season average of 1.81, while Real Salt Lake's attack has stalled, averaging 1.6 goals recently
- Real Salt Lake suffers from heavy defensive issues on the road, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per away match
- The mathematical model expects a close encounter, giving Real Salt Lake a 38% win probability and Portland 34%
Risks
- Both teams face potential fatigue, having only 3 days of rest since their last official match
- Portland is missing Kristoffer Velde, meaning key attacking contributions of 4 goals and 2 assists are unavailable
- Declining form of Real Salt Lake goalkeeper Rafael Cabral with a form trend delta of -0.22
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers34%
Draw28%
Real Salt Lake38%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw62%
Real Salt Lake or draw66%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portland Timbers with José Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Real Salt Lake with Zach Booth: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Real Salt Lake: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Portland Timbers: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Real Salt Lake: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-3
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 5 B. Bye
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 17 C. Bassett
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 99 K. Velde
- 9 F. Mora Aliaga
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 26 P. Quinton
- 4 L. Engel
- 72 Z. Gozo
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 10 D. Luna
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
- 9 M. Guilavogui
Substitutes
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 15 E. Miller
- 16 S. Jura
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 23 C. Booth
- 17 V. Olatunji
- 7 P. Ruíz
- 27 G. Dillon
- 29 S. Junqua
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 98 A. Katranis
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 21 J. Arias
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