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Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - Real Salt Lake

07/26/2026, 02:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Real Salt Lake
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PTRSL

Portland Timbers

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.80
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.06
Kristoffer Velde on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)

Real Salt Lake

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.00
11% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.78
+0.78
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers with JosƩ Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake with Zach Booth: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Portland Timbers: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Real Salt Lake: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Portland averaged 2.0 goals per game recently, higher than their season average of 1.81, while Real Salt Lake's attack has stalled, averaging 1.6 goals recently
  • Real Salt Lake suffers from heavy defensive issues on the road, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per away match
  • The mathematical model expects a close encounter, giving Real Salt Lake a 38% win probability and Portland 34%
Risk Factors
  • Both teams face potential fatigue, having only 3 days of rest since their last official match
  • Portland is missing Kristoffer Velde, meaning key attacking contributions of 4 goals and 2 assists are unavailable
  • Declining form of Real Salt Lake goalkeeper Rafael Cabral with a form trend delta of -0.22
Overview

Portland Timbers (12th place, 18 points) host Real Salt Lake (5th place, 26 points)

Major League Soccer match on July 26, 2026, 4:30 AM

The game will take place at Providence Park

Form

Portland's recent form across all competitions is DLLWD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Real Salt Lake enters with a form of LWWDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Portland drew their last match 2-2 against Dallas

Real Salt Lake lost their latest game 1-3 to Los Angeles FC

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Portland scores an average of 1.81 goals and concedes 1.94 per game

Real Salt Lake averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

Real Salt Lake struggles defensively away from home, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per away match

Portland is more compact at home, conceding 1.44 goals on average

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in total

Real Salt Lake has won 2 times, Portland 1 time, with 2 draws

The last matchup on May 2, 2026, ended in a 0-2 victory for Real Salt Lake

Key Players

Kevin Kelsy leads Portland with 8 goals and 2 assists this season

David Da Costa has contributed 5 assists in 13 midfield appearances for Portland

Zavier Gozo is Real Salt Lake's top performer with 6 goals and 4 assists

Not nominated: Kristoffer Velde (4T/2A)

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis has played 16 games for Portland with an average rating of 7.15

Rafael Cabral has made 15 appearances for Real Salt Lake, recording 2 clean sheets

Influences

The match is held at Providence Park on artificial turf

Portland has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses on artificial turf this season

Real Salt Lake has played twice on artificial turf, securing 1 win and 1 loss

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