Match report →
New England – Atlanta United4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
New England
1.39
Total xG
2.55
Atlanta United
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New England | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.94 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 15% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Tomás Jacob on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ajani Fortune not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Saba Lobjanidze not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 95% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical play: New England recently dominated play with an average possession of 56.8%, but managed only 3.0 shots on target per match
- Home vs. Away discrepancy: New England boasts an extremely solid defense at home (0.58 goals conceded per game), whereas Atlanta United struggle away (conceding 2.4 goals on average)
- Squad impact for Atlanta United: The visitors will miss key attacking options as Ajani Fortune (2 goals) and Saba Lobjanidze (2 goals) are not named in the lineup
Risks
- Rest advantage discrepancy: Atlanta United had only 2 days of rest since their last match, compared to New England's 3 days of break
- Struggling offenses: New England's recent scoring rate averaged only 1.0 goal per game, falling short of their season average (1.6)
- Limited data availability for weather data
All probabilities
Result
New England41%
Draw30%
Atlanta United30%
Double chance
New England or draw70%
Atlanta United or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England with Luca Langoni: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- New England: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- New England: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Atlanta United with Stian Gregersen: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Lineups
New England 4-3-3 · Atlanta United 4-2-3-1
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 21 B. Raines
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 25 P. Miller
- 11 D. Turgeman
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 47 M. Edwards
- 5 S. Rode Gregersen
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 28 W. Reilly
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
- 22 F. Picault
Substitutes
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 14 J. Yueill
- 33 D. Parisian
- 41 L. Langoni
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
- 2 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 20 L. Brennan
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 41 T. Majub
- 56 I. Suarez-Couri
- 39 A. Kovac
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →