Major League Soccer
New England - Atlanta United
07/25/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%0:2
5%What influences the xG?
New England
Atlanta United
League
The Lab
- 1New England with Luca Langoni: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2New England: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3New England: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Atlanta United with Stian Gregersen: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- 5Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Tactical play: New England recently dominated play with an average possession of 56.8%, but managed only 3.0 shots on target per match
- Home vs. Away discrepancy: New England boasts an extremely solid defense at home (0.58 goals conceded per game), whereas Atlanta United struggle away (conceding 2.4 goals on average)
- Squad impact for Atlanta United: The visitors will miss key attacking options as Ajani Fortune (2 goals) and Saba Lobjanidze (2 goals) are not named in the lineup
Risk Factors
- Rest advantage discrepancy: Atlanta United had only 2 days of rest since their last match, compared to New England's 3 days of break
- Struggling offenses: New England's recent scoring rate averaged only 1.0 goal per game, falling short of their season average (1.6)
- Limited data availability for weather data
Overview
New England (4th place, 26 points) host Atlanta United (14th place, 12 points) at the Gillette Stadium
Major League Soccer match on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM
The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 41%
Form
New England's recent form is WLWLD with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches
Atlanta United's recent form is LDLLD, remaining winless with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches
Form codes explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
According to advancedStats, the recent form trend is negative for both clubs
Statistics
New England score an average of 1.47 goals and concede 1.2 goals per match this season
At home, New England score an average of 1.42 goals and concede only 0.58 goals per match
Atlanta United score an average of 1.0 goal and concede 1.63 goals per match this season
In away games, Atlanta United concede an average of 2.4 goals while scoring 1.0 goal
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct head-to-head matches, New England recorded 4 wins and Atlanta United had 1 win
No matches ended in a draw between these two teams
The historical goal record is 8:6 in favor of New England
The last direct meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for New England
Key Players
For New England: Carles Gil (Midfielder, 5 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.45), Dor Turgeman (Attacker, 2 goals, 5 assists), and Peyton Miller (Defender, 3 goals)
For Atlanta United: Aleksey Miranchuk (Midfielder, 5 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.22), Miguel AlmirĆ³n (Attacker, 1 goal, 2 assists, avg rating 7.32), and ElĆas BĆ”ez (Defender, 1 goal, 2 assists)
Goalkeepers
New England goalkeeper Matt Turner has an average rating of 7.22 and kept 4 clean sheets this season
Atlanta United goalkeeper Lucas Hoyos has an average rating of 6.74 and kept 1 clean sheet this season
Influences
Gillette Stadium features artificial turf
On artificial turf, New England have recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses with 13:8 goals
On artificial turf, Atlanta United have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses with 13:16 goals
Venue history at Gillette Stadium averages 1.8 goals per match