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Major League Soccer

Nashville SC - Toronto

09/27/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Nashville SC
2.0
Total xG
3.0
Toronto
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
What influences the xG?
NSTOR

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.91
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.09
Patrick Yazbek not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

Toronto

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Derrick Etienne Jr. on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Richie Laryea not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 82% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Nashville SC: 41% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 22)

  • 3
    Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 4
    DĆ”niel SallĆ³i: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Three key players are missing for Toronto (Derrick Etienne Jr., Alonso Coello, Richie Laryea), leaving them with only 82% of their usual attacking strength
  • Nashville SC averaged 4.4 shots on target with 52% average possession in recent matches
  • The strong home win probability of 60% is backed by Toronto's poor away defense conceding 3.00 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Nashville lost the most recent head-to-head match 1-2 on September 9, 2026
  • Toronto showed counter-attacking threat in recent matches, averaging 5.4 shots on target
Overview

Nashville SC (1st place, 57 points) host Toronto (12th place, 29 points) at GEODIS Park

Major League Soccer match on September 27, 2026, 1:30 AM

The league leaders Nashville SC enter as clear favorites

Form

Nashville's form is WDLDW, coming off a 3-0 win against Chicago Fire

Form string for Nashville is WDLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Toronto's form is DDWLL, coming off a 1-3 loss to St. Louis City

Form string for Toronto is DDWLL

Statistics

Nashville average 2.05 goals scored and 0.63 goals conceded per home game

Toronto concede a troubling average of 3.00 goals per away match

Nashville have kept 12 clean sheets so far this season

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches in total

Four wins for Nashville SC and one win for Toronto

The last meeting on September 9, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Toronto

Key Players

Sam Surridge leads the attack with 16 goals this season

Hany Mukhtar has contributed 11 goals and 6 assists

Cristian Espinoza has recorded 10 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Joe Willis starts for Nashville, supported by the team's 12 clean sheets this season

Luka Gavran has made 26 appearances for Toronto, with the team keeping 3 clean sheets overall

Influences

GEODIS Park features a natural grass surface

Matches at this venue average 3.6 goals per game

No weather data available for this match

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