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Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC - Sporting KC

07/26/2026, 02:30 AM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Los Angeles FC
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Sporting KC
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
LAFSK

Los Angeles FC

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.70
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.44
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.10
Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 95% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)

Sporting KC

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-0.82
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.11
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.78
+0.78
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Sporting KC with Zorhan Bassong: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Los Angeles FC with Stephen Eustaquio: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Matchup Advantage: LAFC's strong home offense (1.8 goals) meets Sporting KC's extremely weak away defense (4.17 goals conceded)
  • H2H Dominance: Los Angeles FC dominates the historical matchup with 3 wins in the last 4 games and an 8-1 goal difference
  • Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 58% home win probability and 1.71 expected goals for the hosts
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Dangerous trend: Sporting KC is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.1 goals), showing offensive strength with an average of 6.6 shots on target recently
  • Squad absence: Los Angeles FC is missing important midfielder Timothy Tillman (1 goal, 2 assists)
Overview

Los Angeles FC host Sporting KC at BMO Stadium

MLS match on July 26, 2026, 2:30 AM

Third-placed team faces fifteenth-placed team

Clear favorite role for the home side

Form

Los Angeles FC with three consecutive wins

Overall form: LLWWW

Recently a 3-1 home win against Real Salt Lake

Sporting KC also showing a positive trend

Overall form: WWLLW

Recently a 2-1 win against Minnesota United

Statistics

Los Angeles FC scoring avg of 1.76 goals per game

Defensively stable with avg 1.06 goals conceded

Sporting KC scoring avg of 1.13 goals per game

Away side's defense highly vulnerable with avg 2.5 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

3 wins for Los Angeles FC and 1 draw

Goal difference of 8-1 in favor of the Californians

Last meeting ended 3-1 for Los Angeles FC

Key Players

Denis Bouanga: 8 goals, 2 assists, rising form

Heung-min Son: 2 goals, 8 assists, stable performance

Mark Delgado: 2 goals, 2 assists, stable midfield presence

Dejan Joveljić: 8 goals, 1 assist, rising form

Manu GarcĆ­a: 2 goals, 4 assists, strong form trend

Calvin Harris: 2 goals, 3 assists, rising form curve

Goalkeepers

Hugo Lloris with 10 clean sheets this season

Stefan Cleveland has 0 clean sheets

Influences

Los Angeles FC is very strong at home with 18 goals scored

Sporting KC has already conceded 25 goals away from home

The match will be played on natural grass at BMO Stadium

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