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Los Angeles FC – Sporting KC4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Los Angeles FC
1.71
Total xG
2.52
Sporting KC
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Los Angeles FC | Sporting KC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −0.82 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.78 | +0.78 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup Advantage: LAFC's strong home offense (1.8 goals) meets Sporting KC's extremely weak away defense (4.17 goals conceded)
- H2H Dominance: Los Angeles FC dominates the historical matchup with 3 wins in the last 4 games and an 8-1 goal difference
- Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 58% home win probability and 1.71 expected goals for the hosts
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Dangerous trend: Sporting KC is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.1 goals), showing offensive strength with an average of 6.6 shots on target recently
- Squad absence: Los Angeles FC is missing important midfielder Timothy Tillman (1 goal, 2 assists)
All probabilities
Result
Los Angeles FC58%
Draw27%
Sporting KC16%
Double chance
Los Angeles FC or draw84%
Sporting KC or draw42%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
5%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Sporting KC with Zorhan Bassong: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Los Angeles FC with Stephen Eustaquio: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Los Angeles FC 4-3-3 · Sporting KC 4-2-3-1
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 11 T. Tillman
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 8 M. Delgado
- 30 D. Martínez Morales
- 7 H. Son
- 99 D. Bouanga
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 8 J. Davis
- 5 O. Blorian
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 6 M. García Alonso
- 11 C. Harris
- 9 D. Joveljić
Substitutes
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 22 J. Terry
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 15 J. Miller
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 3 M. Castillo Mosquera
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