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Major League Soccer

Austin - Dallas

08/17/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Austin
1.3
Total xG
2.9
Dallas
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AUSDAL

Austin

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.67
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Facundo Torres on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)

Dallas

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Logan Farrington on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
Patrickson Delgado not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Kaick on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 95% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Austin with Ilie SĂĄnchez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Dallas with Sam Sarver: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Austin: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 42% probability of an away win and expects 1.59 goals for Dallas
  • Tactical Approach: Dallas played counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of 38% possession and 3.8 shots on target
  • Offense vs Defense: Dallas scores an average of 1.78 goals per game, while Austin is defensively vulnerable, conceding 2.0 goals per match
Risk Factors
  • Stalling Goal Production: Both teams currently show lower goal scoring averages than their season norms (Austin 0.8 vs 1.3; Dallas 1.8 vs 2.0)
  • Squad Absences for Dallas: The visitors have to play without Logan Farrington, Patrickson Delgado, Kaick, and the suspended N. Norris
Overview

Austin hosts Dallas at the Q2 Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 17, 2026, 2:30 AM

Austin is currently in 14th place with 17 points

Dallas sits in 7th place with 27 points

A crucial matchup for Dallas to secure their playoff position

Form

Austin shows a form of LLWLL, with 1 win and 4 losses

Dallas has a more stable form of WWDLD, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

In their last games, Austin lost to Colorado Rapids while Dallas drew against LA Galaxy

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Austin scores an average of 1.22 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per game this season

At home, Austin is defensively much stronger with only 0.7 goals conceded per match

Dallas scores 1.78 goals on average while conceding 1.39 goals per game

On the road, Dallas concedes 1.12 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches in total

Dallas dominates with 3 wins, while Austin has 1 win and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 9 to 5 in favor of Dallas

The last direct meeting ended in a 0-2 away win for Dallas on September 14, 2025

Key Players

Myrto Uzuni has registered 6 goals and 1 assist this season

Christian Ramirez contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

J. Rosales recorded 1 goal and 1 assist

For Dallas, Petar Musa shines with 13 goals and 2 assists

Santiago Moreno has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist

JoaquĂ­n Valiente contributed 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Brad Stuver protects Austin's goal and kept 4 clean sheets this season

Jonathan Sirois represents Dallas with 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

The game will be played on grass at the Q2 Stadium

The venue average is 2.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in 40% of the historical games at this stadium

Austin benefits from solid home defense with only 7 goals conceded in 10 home matches

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