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Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC - San Diego

08/16/2026, 02:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Los Angeles FC
1.4
Total xG
2.5
San Diego
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
LAFSD

Los Angeles FC

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.80
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.75
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 91% available)

San Diego

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.27
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.11
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    San Diego: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    San Diego: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    San Diego: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Los Angeles FC: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)

  • 5
    Los Angeles FC: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Form trend clearly favors the hosts: Los Angeles FC has recently scored more frequently (2.4) than their season average (2.1), while San Diego's goal production has stalled (1.4 compared to 1.8)
  • Defensive contrast: San Diego concedes an extremely high average of 3.5 goals in away games, playing into the hands of the hosts' strong home offense
  • Tactical setup: San Diego averaged a highly possession-dominant style (61% possession) in recent matches, which should open up space for the counter-attacking LAFC (who averaged 40% possession lately)
Risk Factors
  • Los Angeles FC recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game, which could pose a risk if their efficiency drops
  • Historical handicap: Los Angeles FC has never won any of their 3 direct encounters against San Diego (2 losses, 1 draw)
Overview

Los Angeles FC (2nd place, 34 points) hosts San Diego (13th place, 21 points) at BMO Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 16, 2026, 4:30 AM

The hosts enter this match as favorites

Form

Los Angeles FC is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw (WWWWD)

San Diego is struggling with only 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses (DLLWD)

The hosts' positive trend contrasts with the visitors' negative trend

Statistics

Los Angeles FC scores an average of 1.83 goals at home and concedes only 0.75

San Diego averages 2.0 goals scored away but concedes a massive 3.5 goals per away game

The hosts boast a stable defense with 11 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Los Angeles FC has never won

San Diego won 2 games, with 1 draw between them

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw on May 3, 2026

Key Players

Denis Bouanga (10 goals, 4 assists) and Heung-min Son (4 goals, 8 assists) lead the LAFC attack

Mathieu ChoiniĆØre supports the midfield with 2 goals and 3 assists

Not nominated for the hosts: Mark Delgado (2 goals, 2 assists)

For San Diego, Marcus Ingvartsen with 11 goals and Anders Dreyer with 7 goals and 7 assists are the key threats

Onni Valakari contributed 3 goals and 3 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Hugo Lloris guards the hosts' goal and has kept 11 clean sheets this season

Visitor goalkeeper CJ dos Santos has recorded 5 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers aim to build on their records at BMO Stadium

Influences

The grass pitch at BMO Stadium provides perfect playing conditions

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

Los Angeles FC benefits from a strong home advantage, conceding only 0.75 goals per home game

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