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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - Inter Miami

08/19/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Inter Miami
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PUIM

Philadelphia Union

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.34
Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.18
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
Full strength squad available

Inter Miami

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.66
Attack strength (1.4x league average)
-0.23
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.01
GermĂĄn Berterame not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Rodrigo De Paul on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Mateo Silvetti not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Inter Miami with GermĂĄn Berterame: 3.5 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Form curve favors the hosts: Philadelphia Union secured four consecutive wins recently, while Inter Miami lost 1-4 last time out
  • Tactical offensive strength: Philadelphia Union averaged 7.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Historical dominance of the visitors: Inter Miami won four of the last five head-to-head encounters against Philadelphia
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive game
  • Defensive vulnerability: Inter Miami concedes an average of 1.9 goals per away match
  • Hosts' defensive weaknesses: Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 1.84 goals per game this season
Overview

Philadelphia Union (13th place, 19 points) hosts Inter Miami (2nd place, 38 points) at Subaru Park

Major League Soccer match on August 19, 2026, 11:30 PM

Inter Miami travels as the second-placed team, while Philadelphia Union is in the lower third of the standings

Form

Philadelphia Union shows a strong form curve with 4 consecutive wins

The form over the last 5 matches is LWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Inter Miami lost their last match 1-4 against Nashville SC

The guests' form stands at WWWDL over the last 5 matches

Statistics

Philadelphia Union scores an average of 1.47 goals per game this season

Defensively, the hosts concede an average of 1.84 goals per match

Inter Miami boasts an extremely strong attack with 2.42 goals scored per game

The guests concede an average of 1.9 goals per away match

In 14 out of 19 matches for Inter Miami, there were over 2.5 goals scored

Head-to-Head

Inter Miami dominated the last 5 head-to-head matches with 4 wins

Philadelphia Union failed to win any of these matches, earning 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a high-scoring 6-4 win for Inter Miami

A total of 26 goals were scored in these 5 matches (10 for Union, 16 for Miami)

Key Players

Milan Iloski averages 0.68 goals per game this season and scored six goals in his last five matches

Kai Wagner provided three assists in his four appearances this season

Bruno Damiani has scored three goals this season, with three coming in his last five matches

Lionel Messi has 12 goals and 9 assists in 16 appearances for the guests

Luis SuĂĄrez scored an impressive seven goals in his last five games, averaging 0.86 goals per game this season

Telasco Segovia has recorded three goals and six assists in 17 appearances

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake started in goal 18 times this season and kept three clean sheets

Dayne St. Clair played in goal 14 times this season for Inter Miami

Both teams' defensive units have already allowed many goals conceded this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Subaru Park

The last five home games averaged 2.4 goals

The historical home record shows balanced matches in their own stadium

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