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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Cincinnati

08/15/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.6
Total xG
3.2
Cincinnati
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
OCCIN

Orlando City

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.31
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.08
Martín Ojeda not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists)
Braian Ojeda not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Adrián Marín on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Eduard Atuesta not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Tiago on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 73% available)

Cincinnati

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.33
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.5 season average)
+0.33
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
Kenji Mboma Dem on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Gerardo Valenzuela not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Orlando City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

26%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Cincinnati averaged a strong 7.8 shots on target in recent matches, while Orlando City averaged 6.2
  • Cincinnati dominated the last head-to-head match with a resounding 6-2 victory and won three of the last five meetings
  • The mathematical model estimates a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance for both teams to score
Risk Factors
  • Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.57 goals per away game
  • G. Valenzuela is missing for Cincinnati due to a Red Card suspension
  • Orlando City shows high defensive instability, conceding 2.61 goals per game
Overview

Orlando City (11th place, 20 points) hosts Cincinnati (6th place, 26 points) at the Inter&Co Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 15, 2026, 11:30 PM

Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the standings

A tight match is expected, with a home win probability of 39% according to the model

Form

Orlando City's form is DLWWL over the last games

They recently suffered a loss against New York RB

Cincinnati is in good form with DWWLW, recently winning against SJ Earthquakes

Both Orlando City (2.0) and Cincinnati (3.6) are currently scoring more than their season average

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Orlando City concedes an average of 2.61 goals per game this season

At home, their defense is more stable, conceding 1.44 goals per game

Cincinnati scores a strong average of 2.5 goals per match

Away from home, Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.57 goals while scoring 2.43

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3, Orlando City won 1, with 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a resounding 6-2 victory for Cincinnati

Cincinnati scored a total of 11 goals in these matches, while Orlando City scored 7

Cincinnati enters this match as the historically dominant side

Key Players

Antoine Griezmann impressed with 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games for Orlando City

Tyrese Spicer scored 2 goals in 5 recent matches for the home team

Griffin Dorsey shows rising form with 2 goals in 5 appearances

Evander shines for Cincinnati with 11 goals and 10 assists this season

Kévin Denkey contributed 11 goals and 2 assists in 17 season games

Pavel Bucha recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches

Not nominated: Martín Ojeda (11G/0A), Braian Ojeda (1G/2A), Adrián Marín (0G/3A), Eduard Atuesta (0G/3A), Tiago (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Maxime Crépeau is in goal for Orlando City, keeping 1 clean sheet at home

Roman Celentano guards the goal for Cincinnati but is yet to record an away clean sheet

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Inter&Co Stadium

Stadium statistics reveal a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.2 goals per game

Orlando City has a positive goal difference at home with 15 scored and 13 conceded

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