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Major League Soccer

Atlanta United - New York RB

08/15/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlanta United
1.6
Total xG
3.2
New York RB
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AUNYR

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap)
-0.12
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

New York RB

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Jorge Ruvalcaba on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlanta United with Stian Gregersen: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    New York RB with Gustav Berggren: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    New York RB: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Atlanta United: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

26%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • New York RB averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches, showing higher offensive threat than Atlanta with 4.2
  • Artificial turf struggles: Atlanta won only 2 of 10 home games on this surface, while New York RB lost their only turf game 1-6
  • Squad impact: New York RB is missing Jorge Ruvalcaba, leaving them without 12% of their goal threat (7 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: New York RB concedes an average of 2.62 goals in away games
  • Defensive disruption: Atlanta United is missing the suspended defender E. Mihaj
  • Poor home form: Atlanta United is winless in their last 5 games, suffering 4 defeats
Overview

Atlanta United host New York RB at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 15, 2026, 11:30 PM

Atlanta sits in 15th place with 12 points

New York RB is currently in 8th place with 25 points

Mathematical predictions show a balanced tie with a 37% home win and 37% away win probability

Form

Atlanta United is without a win in their last 5 matches

Home form shows LLDLL with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

New York RB shows a more stable form of DWLLW with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Atlanta United averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded per game

New York RB averages 1.61 goals scored and 2.17 goals conceded overall

Away from home, the guests concede an average of 2.62 goals per match

Both teams scored in 11 of Atlanta United's 18 league matches

Head-to-Head

There are 4 head-to-head matches recorded

The historical record is perfectly even with 1 win for each team and 2 draws

Goal difference is 4-5 in favor of New York RB

The last encounter on May 31, 2025, ended in a 2-0 win for New York RB

Key Players

Miguel AlmirĆ³n scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches with a 7.47 average rating

Aleksey Miranchuk has recorded 5 goals and 5 assists this season with a 7.22 rating

Elƭas BƔez contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 16 appearances

Julian Hall is the top threat with 9 goals and 3 assists this season with a 6.96 rating

Cade Cowell has registered 2 goals and 6 assists this campaign

Emil Forsberg scored 2 goals and provided 4 assists with a 6.87 rating

Goalkeepers

Lucas Hoyos starts in goal for Atlanta United with 1 clean sheet in 18 games

Ethan Horvath guards the net for New York RB and also has 1 clean sheet in 18 matches

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta United has a home record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses on artificial turf

New York RB lost their only artificial turf game this season by 1-6

Venue history indicates a high-scoring trend with an average of 4.2 goals per game

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