Major League Soccer
Cincinnati - New York City
08/19/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.0
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Cincinnati
New York City
League
The Lab
- 1Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2New York City: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 3New York City: 80% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4New York City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
27%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Cincinnati is currently scoring more frequently (3.2 goals) than their season average (2.42) and recently averaged 7.2 shots on target per match
- TQL Stadium proves to be highly high-scoring with a historical average of 6.2 goals and an 80% BTTS rate
- Midfielder Evander is in outstanding form, recording 4 goals and 7 assists in his last 5 matches
Risk Factors
- New York City enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game, which could cause fatigue
- The visitors concede a fragile average of 1.8 goals per away match
- Cincinnati's own defense has been vulnerable this season, conceding an average of 2.37 goals per game
Overview
Cincinnati (6th place, 27 points) host New York City (7th place, 26 points) at TQL Stadium
Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 1:30 AM
A direct mid-table duel for crucial playoff points
Form
Cincinnati shows stable form with a record of WWLWD in recent games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Most recently they secured a 1-1 draw away against Orlando City
New York City arrives with a record of LWWDL
The visitors lost their last match 2-3 at home against Philadelphia Union
Statistics
Cincinnati has averaged 2.42 goals scored and 2.37 goals conceded per game this season
In home matches, they average 2.33 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded
New York City averages 1.74 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per match
Away from home, the visitors score an average of 1.6 goals and concede 1.8 goals
Head-to-Head
Out of the last 5 head-to-head matches, New York City emerged victorious 3 times
Cincinnati failed to win any of the last 5 encounters, with 2 ending in a draw
The goal difference in these matches stands at 5-9 against Cincinnati
The last meeting on April 22, 2026, ended in a high-scoring 4-4 draw
Key Players
Evander (11 goals, 10 assists, average rating 7.99) is the key playmaker
KĆ©vin Denkey has contributed 11 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.2
Pavel Bucha shines with 5 goals, 4 assists, and an average rating of 7.02
NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau leads with 13 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.81
AgustĆn Ojeda has registered 5 goals, 4 assists, and an overall rating of 7.01
Tayvon Gray stabilizes with a rating of 6.97 and has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Roman Celentano played 17 matches with a rating of 6.85 and achieved 2 clean sheets
Matt Freese was on the pitch 19 times, earning a rating of 6.88 and recording 3 clean sheets
Influences
The match is played on natural grass at TQL Stadium
Stadium history shows a high average of 6.2 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate
Cincinnati utilizes its home advantage, scoring an average of 2.33 goals